Lidiya Smola dirige le département de recherche analytique et sociologique de la fondation ukrainienne pour la démocratie People First.
"The electoral campaign in Georgia will probably have considerable consequences for the future of the country.
According to data from the Central Electoral Committee, after the calculation of 97.03% of the votes, the political coalition Georgian Dream gets 55% of the votes, and the pro-ruling party United National Movement gets 40.27%.
At the single-mandate districts, the opposition also gets the majority in the parliament - 38 mandates, the present authorities have 35 places. The leader of the Georgian, opposition Bidzina Ivanishvili (a billionaire with a French citizenship and Russian connections), has voiced hope in terms of returning home.
Accordingly, he can become prime minister of Georgia. Starting from October 2013, the constitutional reform comes into force in Georgia and levers of power pass to the prime minister. Therefore, this status will give all the power in the country to the winner of the elections.
Ivanishvili has already planned his first foreign visit to Washington, highlighting that the US will remain the main partner and friend of Georgia.
It is necessary to notice that the international community has mainly shown unanimity in the estimation of the process of the Georgian elections. Members of the international observing mission, representatives of OSCE, marked a strained situation during the elections. However, they emphasised that the parliamentary campaign was democratic and free.
In a joint statement, the EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and the Commissioner for Enlargement Štefan Füle have congratulated the Georgian Dream coalition with its victory, noting that "positive elections on the whole, and also a high voter turnout underline dedication of Georgia to the democratic way."
It is necessary to notice that the statement of the official representatives of the EU about the high voter turnout is not completely correct - almost 40% of citizens the in Georgia, mainly the young people, did not vote.
Key geopolitical players to a certain degree had similar estimations of the results of the Georgian elections.
The US Department of State has noticed that the defeat of the ruling party is a good signal in the question of observing norms of democracy. Representatives of the Senate and the ambassador of the United States to Georgia have congratulated Ivanishvili.
Russia has also congratulated the victory of the opposition. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said that it opens a way to the parliament for more "constructive and more responsible forces."
On the other hand, there was no such unanimity in the news media.
After the promulgation of the data by the Central Electoral Committee, a number of journalists and experts have started to speak about "the narrow-minded" Georgian people who "have given credit to" populist promises of the opposition and destroyed the possibility of realising bright ideas from the Georgian reformers.
However, if we analyse the events which preceded the elections, it is possible to track a certain tendency. Exactly this tendency led to such result of the elections. Thus, this summer the British Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House published a report by the director of the Programme of Foreign Security Policy from the Centre for Social Sciences in Tbilisi, Neil MacFarlane, titled: Georgia: National Security Concept versus National Security, where the activity of Saakashvili's team was subjected to shattering criticism.
The report noticed that the Georgian authorities have basically concentrated on the PR of their activity in the eyes of the world community.
However, the real situation is far from being so optimistic. The country has hoped to receive foreign help and direct foreign investments. Almost all food consumed by the population is in fact imported from abroad.
Over one-third of the population lives below the poverty line. It was noticed that Saakashvili created an attractive facade of the country, behind which there is unemployment and poverty.
It is well-known that it is easier to receive power, than to keep it. Ivanishvili, having received power, will face a number of complex problems.
First of all, there is "a Russia problem". In his pre-electoral statements, the politician spoke about the necessity of revision of relations with Russia.
Despite Ivanishvili's statements about the extraction of business assets from Russia, a part of the population of Georgia considers him to be "the Kremlin puppet". Will he manage to keep balance between his aspiration to renew neighbourly relations with Russia, lost during Saakashvili's rule, and thus not to appear as a "a real-life puppet"?
Time and his first steps as a prime minister will give the answer. Will Ivanishvili continue as a politician?
The question remains open, especially in the light of his post-electoral statements about the "necessity to carry out an investigation of the activity of the previous authorities" and appeals to the president to resign.
The necessity to combine the continuation of reforms in the country and the embodiment of the proclaimed growth of the living standards of the poorest layers of the population will become a no-less weighty problem.
In his policies Saakashvili placed emphasis on the youth as the future of the country. He was successful in overcoming corruption and reforming the system of state administration. However, mass media, especially on the eve of the elections, persistently disseminated that 67% are unemployed in the country.
Thoughts about the current president making no progress when it comes to social policies directed at the impoverished levels of the population also could be seen in press.
Ivanishvili was engaged in charity for a long time. He has said that he's planning to make the main emphasis on the small and medium business, giving it a chance to develop at the expense of decreasing the state pressure.
He is planning to use state privileges only for financing agriculture (such as support for wine making). Creation of new work places and a rise in the living standards of the population will become one of the main tasks of the new leadership of the country.
It will be possible to speak about the future of Georgia only after the formation of a new government and the constitutional reform coming into force in 2013. However, already today the country is changing and heading for the status of a buffer zone on the border with Turkey."
