The 2005 World Energy Outlook, issued on 7 November by the International Energy Agency, possibly contains the strongest warning signal ever issued by the Paris-based agency.
Assuming current policies remain unchanged ('reference scenario'), it forecasts that by 2030:
- global energy demand will rise by over 50% (60% of which expected to be covered by oil and gas)
- world energy resources will be sufficient to meet this demand but $17 trillion in investment will be needed to bring them to consumers
- global dependence on Middle East and North Africa oil and gas will rise from 35% today to 44% by 2030; Saudi Arabia and Iran together are expected to meet some 45% of the growth in demand; Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Libya are the fastest growing producers
- in these countries, oil production will increase by 75%, while natural gas production is expected to treble
- this would entail an annual $56 billion investment every year in infrastructure
- oil prices ease to $35 in 2010 as new crude oil production and refining capacity comes on stream and will rise to $39 in 2030 ($65 in nominal terms)
- energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 52%
The report produces two alternative scenarios. In the 'deferred investment scenario', investments in producing countries are delayed, leading by 2030 to:
- a sharp rise in energy prices ($52 or $86 in nominal terms)
- a slowdown in global GDP growth
- a slowdown in energy demand as a consequence
In the 'alternative policy scenario', consuming countries change their policies to reduce global oil and gas demand. It forecasts that by 2030:
- global energy demand will rise by 37%
- the world will continue to rely heavily on Middle East and North Africa supplies
- energy-related CO2 emissions will rise by 30%
