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Les décideurs politiques divisés sur la dette grecque

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Publié 16 novembre 2012

Jeudi (15 novembre), le commissaire européen en charge des affaires économiques, Olli Rehn, a tenté d’écarter tout effacement de la dette grecque après que la Banque centrale européenne a déclaré pour la première fois qu’il était probable qu’elle la diminue.

A row between eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund over how to make Greece's giant debt mountain manageable is holding up the release of €31 billion in emergency loans needed to keep Athens afloat.

IMF officials have argued privately that some writedown for eurozone governments is necessary to make Greece solvent but Germany, the biggest contributor to the bloc's bailout funds, has repeatedly rejected the idea of taking a loss on holdings of Greek debt, saying it would be illegal.

Rehn, economic and monetary affairs commissioner, told reporters in Helsinki: "The solution will be a combination of various elements, one is not enough."

"But it is essential that the principal not be touched. There is a strict unanimity on this within the eurozone."

Rehn's comment contradicted ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene, who was quoted by a Belgian daily as saying that a partial writedown of Greek debt was likely to happen eventually.

De Standaard said Coene made the comments in a debate with students at Ghent University on Wednesday. He was also quoted as saying Spain should urgently seek a bailout.

Asked whether the Belgian central bank chief had been reflecting a growing view in the ECB that an official sector "haircut" on Greek debt was inevitable or speaking for himself, a senior ECB source said Coene had expressed his personal view.

Greece's total debt is forecast to rise to 190% of gross domestic product next year and seems highly unlikely to fall back to 120% of GDP by 2020, the level the IMF has said is the maximum sustainable in the long term.

Banks, insurers and other private investors holding about €206 billion of Greek bonds took a savage "haircut" on the nominal value of their securities earlier this year.

Haircut

The eurozone's debt crisis began in Greece three years ago when a newly elected government disclosed that the country had knowingly understated its budget deficit.

Athens managed to sell nearly €1 billion in short-term bills on Thursday to complete raising the €5 billion it needs to pay off maturing paper on Friday and avoid default.

But the government desperately needs the next tranche of its international bailout loans to recapitalise its banks and pay civil servants and suppliers.

A senior eurozone source told Reuters on Wednesday that finance ministers of the 17-nation currency area would only attempt to close Greece's financing gap to 2014 when they meet again in Brussels next Tuesday, instead of finding a solution up to 2020 as sought by the IMF.

"We will concentrate on 2013 and 2014. The sum is about €13.5 billion," said the source involved in negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity.

That might postpone a longer-term solution to the Greek debt problem until after a September 2013 German general election, but it may not be acceptable to the IMF.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde clashed publicly with the chairman of eurozone finance ministers this week, saying the global lender differed with the Europeans on how to make Greece's debt sustainable.

She insisted on Wednesday that the IMF, which put up almost a third of the money lent to Greece in two bailouts, wanted a "real fix, not a quick fix" to the issue, suggesting she will take a dim view of a shorter-term solution.

An IMF spokesman accompanying Lagarde in Manila said she would cut short a visit to Asia to attend next Tuesday's crucial Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

Senior eurozone officials will hold a preparatory conference call on Friday to try to narrow differences. Among ideas under consideration to plug the funding gap are further reducing the interest rate and extending the maturity of eurozone loans to Greece, a possible interest payment holiday and bringing forward loan tranches due at the end of the programme, eurozone sources said.

'IMF committed'

Under its standard procedures, the IMF cannot go on disbursing loans unless an adjustment programme is fully funded up to the end.

Eurozone ministers agreed on Monday to grant Greece an extra two years, until 2016 to meet its fiscal targets, which the international lenders said would cost an extra €32 billion.

The dispute has called into question whether the IMF will remain in the Greek programme.

But Rehn said: "The IMF has committed to support Greece according to the programme, which was agreed together with the eurozone. There is no reason to suspect that the IMF would not cooperate also in the next stage of Greece's financing programme.

"We know that many member countries view IMF participation, also financing, as a prerequisite for eurozone supporting Greece with these loan programmes," the EU official said.

"Because of this, it is not possible, even in principle, that the eurozone would act without the IMF."

Prochaines étapes : 
  • 20 Nov.: Meeting of eurozone finance ministers (Eurogroup) to decide on Greek funding gap.
EurActiv.com with Reuters
Contexte : 

Greece's international lenders agreed on Monday (12 November) to give the country two more years to meet its debt-reduction targets, leaving a funding hole of €32.6 billion in the country's finances up to 2016.

A further meeting on 20 November will decide on how to fill that gap. Officials said more negotiations could be required the week after that to nail down a new deal.

>> Read: Greece wins two-year delay to reduce debt burden

EU lending to Greece was held up in June after Athens went way off track with reforms and fiscal consolidation that it promised in exchange for a eurozone-funded bailout.

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