"The decisive factor will be the respect that member states show for the role," said Lafitte, speculating that if Ashton "gets rebuked two or three times on high-profile issues – on Iran, say – we may have to wait another decade before anything serious changes".
"Conversely, if she is constantly scared of [making] a faux pas and does not take any initiative aside from political correctness, nothing will change either," he warned, adding that "she walks a very tight uphill rope".
Asked how different Ashton's role would differ from that of her predecessor, Javier Solana, who left his position at the end of November after ten years in the role (EurActiv 10/12/09), the Avisa chief said the Briton would "benefit from an authority based on the treaty, a right of initiative, a large staff and more money".
As well as holding a vice-presidency of the Commission, the former trade commissioner will lead the European External Action Service, the EU's diplomatic corps, which brings together 6,000 officials from the European Commission, permanent Council staff and national ministries.
"This is what Solana had been asking for repeatedly in the last ten years," said Lafitte, expressing hope that Ashton would make "clever use" of her new powers and "bring the EU closer to speaking with a single voice".
Whether or not she is successful "will of course depend on her standing in the next Commission and whether she enjoys the necessary backing from national governments," he added, warning against the risk of her being "sidelined" by powerful member states.
'Personalities right' to avoid top-job clash
Rejecting suggestions that Baroness Ashton's role may conflict with that of new permanent Council President Herman Van Rompuy as "overblown", Lafitte nevertheless concedes that "there is a 'grey zone' in the treaty" in this regard.
"Everything will depend on what Mr. Van Rompuy and Ms. Ashton make of their roles and how events and political constellations will determine them. They seem to have the right personalities for avoiding clashes," the consultant said.
Van Rompuy, meanwhile, is the "ultimate problem fixer," according to Lafitte, who believes "Eurosceptics may have opened the champagne too early" in dismissing the former Belgian premier's appointment as a missed opportunity.
Meanwhile Ashton, who is yet to be confirmed in her new role by the European Parliament, stood accused by MEPs of being "too vague" and "general" in her responses during a Q&A session on 2 December (EurActiv 03/12/09).
She will be grilled by the Parliament again in mid-January ahead of a vote on the appointment of the entire Barroso II Commission on 26 January.
Lafitte was speaking to Andrew Williams.
