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La Russie veut que les Occidentaux reconnaissent sa zone d’influence

Publié 21 septembre 2009
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La Russie a salué le « nouveau départ » de ses relations avec l’OTAN après l’annonce la semaine dernière par le président Barack Obama que les Etats-Unis allaient repenser le système de défense antimissile imaginé par son prédécesseur. Moscou demande maintenant une reconnaissance de sa propre zone d’influence régionale.

It is time for the West and Russia to start discussing mutual recognition of their military alliances, Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin told journalists on Friday (18 September). 

Moscow asked the transatlantic alliance to establish ties with its own military union – the Organisation of the Treaty of Collective Security (OTCS) – saying that it wants its sphere of influence recognised. 

'Spasibo' 

Welcoming the fact that in his words, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen had recognised the existence of Russian interests in a landmark speech (see 'Background'), Rogozin said Russia was saying 'thank you' but wanted words to be followed by deeds. 

Speaking in Russian, Rogozin said it was time for NATO and the Organisation of the Treaty of Collective Security (OTCS), which regroups seven countries - Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - to establish formal relations. Such formal ties would amount to recognition by the West that Russia too has a sphere of influence. 

"We fail to understand why the USA can have a global sphere of influence, but Russia is denied even a regional sphere," Rogozin said. 

NATO means the USA, because the Alliance is not the sphere of influence of Bulgaria or Romania, but of Washington, he added. 

Worries about Afghanistan 

Asked by EurActiv to develop his views on possible NATO-OTCS cooperation, Rogozin indicated that Russia and NATO had similar interests in Afghanistan, and OTCS was well-equipped to curb drug smuggling from that country to the region and throughout the world. 

But he made it clear that Russia would not help NATO in Afghanistan by sending troops there. "We've already been in Afghanistan and we didn't like it," Rogozin said. 

The Russian diplomat said Moscow was worried about calls for an exit strategy from Afghanistan, where NATO has a force named ISAF under a UN mandate. 

"We hear hysterical statements [from European NATO members] about an exit strategy. But we didn't agree anything like this with NATO. They have a United Nations mandate in Afghanistan, let them implement it," Rogozin said. 

"If NATO fails in Afghanistan, we will be faced with a catastrophic fundamentalist expansion in all countries in the region," he warned. 

The top US commander in Afghanistan says in a confidential assessment of the war that without additional forces, the mission "will likely result in failure," the Washington Post reported on 21 September. 

Starting over

Asked to comment on Rasmussen's speech, Rogozin said it marked the willingness of the new NATO chief to "change the behaviours in NATO and maybe at world level in the last 20 years". However, he added that as an experienced diplomat, he could not sign a blank cheque. 

"We have been starting anew already five or six times," he said, adding that a lot depended on the people, and complimented Rasmussen for being a political heavyweight compared to his predecessor Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, a former Dutch foreign minister. 

In his words, the fact that Rasmussen had been prime minister of a "serious country" like Denmark and had good personal contacts with the Obama administration was "making a difference". 

"I have a serious assumption that Washington was aware [of the messages delivered by Rasmussen] and has given its agreement," Rogozin said. Without naming Poland and the Czech Republic, who are feeling sidelined after the US changed its plans for a missile shield and no longer needs their involvement, he said "the resistance by those who want to keep a virtual Berlin Wall" will be overcome. 

"We find ourselves on the threshold of important events," the Russian envoy concluded. 

Réactions : 

US President Barack Obama's decision to shelve the Bush administration's missile defence plans has created a crisis of confidence in Washington's relations with Central and Eastern Europe, writes Ronald Asmus, executive director of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in an article published by the Washington Post. 

Asmus, who served in the Clinton administration as assistant secretary of state, writes that the new US initiatives run the risk of "shattering the morale and standing of transatlantic leaders in the region, who now feel politically undermined and exposed". 

The author argues that the Western community's first mistake was to assume that Russia would finally accept that Central and Eastern Europe were gone from its sphere of influence. 

"But geopolitical competition didn't stop. Moscow simply tried to pressure and interfere in new ways, using energy and other weapons. It seeks to marginalise these countries in NATO and the European Union by going above their heads. It still wants to create a zone of special Russian interest, influence and lesser security," Asmus argues. 

The second mistake was poor handling of commitments to defend Central and Eastern European countries, the author continues. He explains that in the mid-1990s, Washington promised Polish leaders that NATO would have a corps-size reinforcement capability to provide for their security. But that NATO corps-size reinforcement capability never materialised, he says. 

"Given this record, we should not be surprised that Central and Eastern Europeans doubt what NATO would do to help them in a pinch. While they are loath to say it publicly, their leaders have told me that they are no longer certain NATO is capable of coming to their rescue if there were a crisis involving Russia. They no longer believe that the political solidarity exists or that NATO's creaky machinery would take the needed steps," Asmus claims. 

Contexte : 

NATO proposed a new era of cooperation with the United States and Russia on Friday (18 September), calling for joint work on missile defence systems after Washington scrapped a planned anti-missile system (see EurActiv 17/09/09). 

"I do believe that it is possible for NATO and Russia to make a new beginning and to enjoy a far more productive relationship in the future," NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a speech in Brussels. 

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin described as "correct and brave" US President Barack Obama's decision to drop the missile shield planned for Europe by predecessor George W. Bush. 

Some military experts saw the move as a sign of weakness by Obama which Moscow hardliners would want to exploit further. Putin called in a speech on Friday for Obama to follow up with concessions on trade and technology transfer. 

Others described abandonment of the system as a bold gesture that could improve frosty relations between the West and Russia. 

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