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Frustrated young voters could reverse declining turnout in EU elections

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Published 03 June 2013, updated 07 June 2013

For decades, elections to the European Parliament have been dismissed as secondary affairs, with turnout declining at every ballot since direct polling began in 1979.

But frustration with how Europe's leaders have handled the economic crisis over the past three years, increased political engagement by young voters and the growing influence of the Parliament itself could be about to change that.

That has put officials on the defensive. Last week, EU officials rebuffed as “groundless” and “dangerous” criticism from the German finance minister that the Commission is failing to address joblessness, EurActiv Germany reported.

The next election is still a year away, in May 2014. But already Europe's major political blocs are jockeying for position and staking out issues. And the latest research suggests the vote will be a hotly contested affair.

"Young people are angry and they want to have a voice," said Adam Nyman, director of Debating Europe, a project that channels questions from young voters directly to politicians in Brussels.

"I don't think they will shy away from the next election."

A survey released by the European Commission last week showed 65% of eligible voters below the age of 30 plan to vote next year, with a particular rise among first-time voters. That represents a sharp departure from the past.

Total voter turnout has declined at all seven elections since 1979, dropping to just 43% in 2009. Of that, youth turnout has been among the largest decliners, sliding to 29% in 2009 from around 33% in 2004.

The last three years of economic turmoil have been extremely tough for young people throughout Europe, but particularly those in the south - Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Italy and Portugal - which has suffered most during the crisis.

‘Lost generation’

Youth unemployment in Greece and Spain now stands above 50% and sociologists are genuinely concerned about the risks of a "lost generation", with the possibility that some young people will never secure a job in their lifetime.

The frustration that generates has already been seen in demonstrations on the streets of Athens, Madrid and elsewhere - there have been days of riots on the streets of Sweden - but it may also be vented via the ballot box.

James Tilly, a professor of political science at Oxford University, is not convinced youth anger will translate into higher voter turnout, pointing out that young Germans and Austrians have not gone through the same experience as Greeks.

But if the predicted doubling of youth votes does happen, it promises to send reverberations across the political landscape, much as it has done in Italy, where the Five Star Movement captured 60% of the youth vote in February, turning it into one of nation's most powerful forces overnight.

The question is whether young voters will give their support to the traditional blocs - the centre-right EPP, the liberal ALDE group or the Socialists - or instead lean towards anti-EU parties such as Britain's UKIP or Finland's True Finns.

If anti-EU parties do surge, they are most likely to steal votes from the socialists, liberals and conservatives, who together hold 70% of the parliament's 754 seats. That could alter which group ends up being the largest, which in turn may affect who becomes European Commission president - a powerful job with a direct role in shaping Europe's future.

Suddenly, elections that haven't much mattered for three decades are shaping up to have a real impact. 

Next steps: 
  • 22-25 May 2014: European Parliament elections
EurActiv.com with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • It would be great if all Anti EU parties would join in one movement and work together to stop all this crazy self-declared better humans policy in nowadays Brussels. Peaceful Europe is good, but nobody needs a commission which dictates what is considered hazardous or not. Stop unify everything and everywhere ! It´s time to reverse this process

    By :
    Ulli
    - Posted on :
    03/06/2013
  • Well, calling opposition parties "Anti EU parties", says it all. It's a disgusting example of political discrimination, if not suppression by the upper echelons in the EU and the Eurozone.
    No wonder that trustworthiness of the EU and its political élite is at anall time low.

    By :
    Willem, a Dutchman
    - Posted on :
    04/06/2013
  • @Willem - Opposition parties...from what ? The EU ? Centre-left to centre-right parties ? Your answer says it all...

    "Anti-EU" means "who wishes to have no or limited common policies at European level". True Finns, UKIP, Front National, Golden Dawn, Alternative für Deutschland may have very different positions on other points, but they are all sceptic or hostile about going further in EU integration.

    By :
    korkenschlumpfer
    - Posted on :
    05/06/2013
  • I'll certainly vote. Next elections are of great importance, they will define the future of the EU.

    My choice are federalists.
    We need strong, truly united Europe. The European State.
    The today EU as a loosely connected assemblage of micro-states have no future. Either it collapse (read: war) or it will become the most powerful _federation_ in the human history.

    By :
    Otto
    - Posted on :
    07/06/2013
  • I cannot see any reason why the largely unemployed youth of Europe should vote in greater numbers than before . Perhaps you might think that as unemployed they have nothing better to do . Who can they vote for that can in the slightest degree improve the bankrupt economies and vast unemployment .
    Only an extremely radical change of faces in the European Parliament might create any improvement in the present disastrous situation . I am doubtful that the EP would ever have the power to overide the commission, but that is what is needed to put the EU in reverse , abolish many of the well meant but highly restrictive laws . The EU is like a boa constrictor that is winding so tight it will throttle itself .

    I would like to see the British vote in more UKIP EP members than conservatives . With a sufficient radical change in the EP , we might see Nigel Farage voted as president of the commission . that would be a laugh .

    My guess is that 2014 voting for the EP elections will continue in the same pattern with an ever smaller turn out to vote . I believe most ordinary voters think the EU is a vast waste of time and money that benefits nobody .

    By :
    David Barneby
    - Posted on :
    29/06/2013
  • Otto

    Europe's Micro States will still be here , long after the EU has collapsed and passed into history .
    There is an old saying ," They Put Good Scent Into Little Bottles ".

    By :
    David Barneby
    - Posted on :
    29/06/2013
  • Otto's federalism - "the most powerful _federation_ in the human history" you mean, like, a big European version of nationalism? A sort of Euro fatherland? Sounds like all the petty local nationalists which federalists so despise but on a continental scale. Count me out. Better to be small, insignificant, and outside but free.

    By :
    Charles_M
    - Posted on :
    29/06/2013
  • Charles_M

    A sense of nationalist support is the one vital ingredient the EU lacks and will likely never have .

    I would rather see Britain as an island of small sheep farmers that part of a massive federal EU state .

    I'm with you Charles
    " Better to be small, insignificant, and outside but free."

    By :
    David Barneby
    - Posted on :
    30/06/2013

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