If confirmed, the new date would mark a significant change of direction for Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen, who indicated at an EU summit in December 2008 that the second referendum would most likely take place in late 2009 (EurActiv 12/12/08).
Indeed, the entire European legislative apparatus has been working under the assumption that the second vote will take place in October, allowing the Treaty to come into force in January 2010, provided that the Irish people reverse their decision and vote 'yes' (see EurActiv LinksDossier).
However, with the Irish economy in freefall, recent polls indicating strong popular support for the Lisbon Treaty in a potential second referendum have mobilised sections of the Irish government to consider an earlier ballot. The argument for holding an early referendum is that "there appears to be a mood [in Ireland]; let's grab it," a senior source at the Irish foreign ministry told EurActiv.
Irish MEP Eoin Ryan, who hails from Cowen's Fianna Fail party, urged government leaders to speed up the process of codifying the concessions granted to Ireland at the December summit, thus taking advantage of growing popular sentiment backing the treaty.
"If the government can successfully conclude these negotiations quickly, and secure the necessary legal assurances required, then I believe that the government should then hold a referendum on the revised Lisbon Treaty arrangement sooner rather than later," he said.
Irish political sources told EurActiv that the Libertas factor may also be tempting the government to fast-track the referendum to June. "The debacle over the non-signatures (see EurActiv 05/02/09) has utterly discredited Libertas," the source said, "and given that they were the main force behind last year's 'no' vote, the government sees a further reason to move the referendum forward. They are giving this serious consideration."
However, the Irish foreign ministry source cautioned that so far, this is nothing more than speculation, saying: "The issue is there, it's a possibility, but no more than that at this stage."
