Irish attitudes towards Europe have cooled during the country's financial crisis and there is no guarantee a referendum on tougher fiscal rules would be passed, putting a question mark over Dublin's commitment to the single currency and creating a headache for Brussels.
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny told parliament yesterday (24 January) that he would hold a referendum if the state's lawyer clearly advised him such a vote was necessary. She will advise Kenny after a final text is decided by EU leaders at a summit next week.
But opposition parties said they would demand a referendum either way.
"I think you can pretty much take it that there will be some legal challenge if the government conclude that there is no need for a referendum," independent member of parliament Richard Boyd Barrett of the 'Campaign Against Austerity Treaty' told Reuters.
Ireland's largest left-wing opposition party Sinn Fein has also said it may take legal action to ensure a referendum is held.
Even if opposition parties fail to act, there is a strong possibility the country's president, Michael Higgins, may refer the fiscal compact to the Supreme Court to test its constitutionality and the court could rule that a popular vote is needed.
"If the government decide that they don't need a referendum, I suspect that the president will refer it to the Supreme Court," said Ronan McCrea, an Irish lawyer and EU constitutional law lecturer at University College London.
"There is enough doubt around the constitutionality to justify a reference and also it would make the process quicker."
Irish presidents have referred legislation to the Supreme Court 15 times since 1937. The president has seven days from the time parliament presents him with a bill to decide, with the help of his council of top political and judicial figures, whether or not to sign it into law.
If the president opts to refer the bill, the Supreme Court could meet within days.
A challenge by opposition groups would take much longer as it would have to wait until after the president signs the bill into law. Such a challenge would go to the High Court first, followed by a possible appeal to the Supreme Court.
COMMENTS
THE ENDLESS SAGA OF IRISH REFENDUM ON ANY EU TREATY CHANGE (EVEN MINUTE ONES - BUT STRANGELY NOT ON CHANGES DUE TO NEW COUNRIES ACCESSION) IS A PAIN IN THE NECK.
SOME YEARS AGO A BRAVE IRISH PRIME MINISTER SUGGESTED THAT THE CONSTITUTION SHOULD BE CHANGED SO THAT TREATIES MAY BE RATIFIED BY PARLIAMENT AS IT IS THE CASE IN ALMOST ALL EU AND DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES.
HE FOUND A STRONG OPPOSITION AND NO SUPPORT FROM THE POLITICAL CLASS, UNENTHOUSIASTIC TO BRING ABOUT AN IMPOPULAR REFORM WITH NO IMMEDIATE POLITICAL BENEFITS ATTACHED.
SO THAT WE MUST GET USED TO HAVE - NOT ONE BUT TWO - IRISH REFERENDUM ON EACH TREATY CHANGE, THE FIRST GENERALY NECESSECITATING A CORRECTION DUE TO THE POOR PREPARATION OF THE FIRST ...JEAN-GUY GIRAUD
I cannot vouch for other readers but I, personally, enjoy the Democracy of this country .. Democracy puts the power in the hands of the people, not the few (Greek word for that is "Oligarchia" - the power of the few).
So yes, I'm proud of this country's system as time or fund consuming as it may be and no, I am not convinced that other countries enjoy the same Democracy...
..as Fuller once wrote:
"a dictatorship which clothes itself with a tinsel of legal form can so far depart from the morality of order (...) that it ceases to be a legal system"
The people choose the mores and ways of their country and the leaders apply them, anything contrary to that cannot be named "democratic" as it is against the same legal principle that the word itself holds.
You are welcome to disagree.
jean-guy giraud, referenda are required when there is going to be some impact on irish sovereignty. this fiscal treaty does have an impact on the functioning of the oireachtas on budgetary measures, therefore it affects our sovereignty.
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