Dr Roman Rukomeda is a political scientist and analyst with the Ukrainian Foundation for Democracy,'People First'.
"2011 has been one of the most difficult years for the European Union since it was founded. During this short period the EU has faced the participation in military operations in Libya, the threat of the disintegration of the Schengen area and, what's most important, the debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The last one has put the eurozone on the verge of disintegration and created risks for the further political existence of the EU as a single entity.
Thus, the year which is coming to an end, is determinative for the European Union as a powerful international player, a superstate which exists in a today's confederative form. Later on political logic and historical context will demand either a transition to a new form of a federative state with growing powers of the unitary centre, or a gradual disintegration of the European confederation and return to national interests of separate member states, despite a possible formal existence of the European Union. It's unnecessary to say which one out of the two scenarios is the most efficient and competitive in present crisis conditions.
Crisis at the EU's borders
Apart from the crisis inside the EU proper, two clear crisis tendencies were formed at the borders of the European Union in 2011. The first one is connected with the 'Arab Spring' and revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya with its continuation in Syria. Unexpectedly for many, after the fall of anti-national regimes of Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi, the 'Arab Autumn' quickly came about.
It led to the transition of power to military and pro-Muslim forces with the renewal of the Sharia norms practice and incapability to provide at least a former level of social security for people. The crisis tendency of revolutions and their consequences in North Africa has instantly intensified the vulnerability of the southern borders of the EU due to the actualisation of risks of illegal migration, arms traffic, destabilisation of Europe's energy supply, influence on a trade and economic situation, and so on.
The second crisis tendency is crystallising at the EU's eastern frontiers. The name of it is a new wave of Eastern European authoritarianism. After another re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, the president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych and his team considerably drifted towards authoritarianism. Besides, it became known that the present prime-minister of Russia Vladimir Putin will definitively return to presidency.
The formation of a bloc of authoritarian states at the east of Europe, which at present is not yet finished, bears new risks for the EU. They will show up completely after a definitive consolidation of this space under the influence of Russia (through the Customs Union, the Unitary Economic Space, and subsequently, the Eurasian Union). The European Union risks losing communication with Kyiv and hope of communication with Minsk, receiving a unitary powerful actor in their place – Moscow.
Ways of revival for Europe
It is important that Europe and, first of all, its leaders - France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom determine a strategy and logic of their further development. One possible option is to solve internal problems by conserving enlargement processes, minimising foreign policy in present crisis conditions and completely concentrate on the reformatting of rules of the game inside the EU exclusively in all spheres and for all participants. This will mean a durable search of compromises between the leading EU states, contradictions between which are already now entering the public sphere.
The second option is to activate the enlargement of territorial borders of the EU to its political borders with a simultaneous centralisation of managerial processes. This can be called a dynamic development through an external enlargement. This would not only lead to access to new markets, demographic and natural resources, but would also consolidate Europe for its further development, having optimised the managerial process.
Stabilisation of borders at the south and east is of great value for the EU in order to effectively and rapidly overcome the present crisis. If the European Union aspires to minimise risks connected with the Arab spring, it should take responsibility for the stabilisation of the situation in the countries of North Africa. This will require additional resources, but it will allow it to secure the southern borders of Europe against further chaos.
Ukraine's eastern borders or the Southern Caucasus, where the geographical boundary between Europe and Asia is situated, may become eastern frontiers of the EU in case it continues its territorial and political enlargement and decides to accept Georgia into the European Union.
By strengthening the potential of the EU with Ukrainian possibilities and also by a territorial appearance at the Southern Caucasus, the European Union can fulfil a historical mission of consolidating the whole of Europe and become the strongest geopolitical player in the world.
Neutralisation of energy risks for Europe and modernisation of the economy with account of new technologies and also lessons learnt from crisis are no less essential. Modern economic realities in the world highlight the danger of a complete transfer of industry from Europe to the territory of the third countries outside the EU. In the given context the process of a territorial enlargement of the European Union will satisfy the challenge of strengthening energy safety and developing new technologies.
A new philosophy
Simultaneously, a change of social and humanitarian policy inside the consolidation will be of key importance for the EU. Statements of leaders of the 'old Europe' about the failure of multiculturalism, aggravation of ethnic contradictions, actual curtailing of the European socialism, started by Bismarck, and also social and psychological consequences of the above-stated processes require a new political, economic and cultural philosophy for citizens of the European Union.
Without it the European society will go deep into internal contradictions, recollect old historical insults and strengthen the process of destruction of the unified image of a European. Consequently, we are looking forward to hearing a response to the challenge of time on the side of European political philosophers and a new generation of European politicians.
Margaret Thatcher once said 'Europe was created by history. America was created by philosophy.' The time has come to unite European history and philosophy for the sake of a successful development of the unitary Europe. Only a new movement of ideas, values and innovative development strategies can provide success."
COMMENTS
"One possible option is [...] reformatting of rules of the game inside the EU"
I hope that is a possible option - the only barrier is stubborn unwillingness. But what form is the reformat to take? The elites will surely want to further consolidate their power and who will speak for the 99%? Democracy - the principle that no one wins all the time - is not popular among winners and, even where democracy has been to some degree institutionalized, it is of incredibly poor design for the 21st century. And that poor design is largely due to winners, the elite, refusing to play with unloaded dice.
At a minimum, the EU needs to force the European Council to use simple majority votes and it needs to force EU-wide - not local - popular votes for all members of parliament and for the commission president.
The above would be tiny incremental improvements to the quality of democracy in the EU, but still significant, and would not too rattle people's model of how democracy is supposed to work. Thus doable - maybe.
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