Lauren Goodrich is a Russia expert and senior Eurasia analyst at STRATFOR.
"Tensions between the United States and Russia have risen in the past month over several long-standing problems, including ballistic missile defence (BMD) and supply lines into Afghanistan. Moscow and Washington also appear to be nearing another crisis involving Russian accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
The crises come as Washington struggles over its many commitments in the world and over whether to focus on present events in Afghanistan or future events in Central Europe. Russia has exploited the US dilemma, using its leverage in both arenas. However, if Moscow takes its aggressive moves too far, it could spark a backlash from the United States and Central Europe.
The US BMD scheme for Europe has long been a source of US-Russian tensions. Washington argues that its European BMD programme aims to counter threats emerging from the Middle East, namely Iran, but its missile defence installations in Romania and Poland are not slated to become operational until 2015 and 2018, respectively, by which time Russia believes the United States will have resolved its issues with Iran. Moscow thus sees US missile defence strategy as more about the United States seeking to contain Russia than about Iran.
Moscow does not fear that the United States is seeking to neutralise or erode Russia’s nuclear deterrent, however; the issue is the establishment of a physical US military footprint in those two states - which in turn means a US commitment there. Romania and Poland border the former Soviet Union, a region where Russia is regaining influence.
Russia previously pressured key states in the Bush-era BMD scheme, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, to reconsider acceding to such plans. This assertiveness peaked with its 2008 invasion of Georgia, which both proved that Moscow was willing to take military action and exposed the limits of US security guarantees in the region.
The Russian move in Georgia gave the Central Europeans much to think about, prompting some attempts to appease the Kremlin. Still, these states did not abandon all faith in the United States as a strategic counter to Russia."
