With crucial national elections due on 13 June, just two weeks before it takes the rotating EU presidency for six months, Belgium is reaching a defining moment in its 180-year history.
The Belgian government collapsed in April over a dispute between French- and Dutch-speaking parties regarding electoral boundaries surrounding the capital, Brussels, which is home to the EU institutions (EurActiv 27/04/10).
Belgium is currently being run by a caretaker government, but Olivier Chastel says the elections will not disrupt the presidency too much.
"It is [...] possible that a new government will come during the presidency," conceded the francophone politician from the Mouvement Réformateur (MR), a centre-right party which ranks second, behind the socialists, in the French-speaking half of the country.
However, according to Chastel, several months will probably be needed before the country's divided political parties – French- and Dutch-speaking – can agree on a coalition programme that will include long-standing state reforms demanded by the Flemish side.
"In Belgium, we have rarely seen a government set up in 10 days. This seems like mission impossible."
"Objectively, even with the goodwill that some are showing […], I think it will be complicated to achieve it in a few weeks or months. September is often cited. I don't have a crystal ball but after two months or two-and-a-half months of negotiation, it is possible to see the arrival of a new government."
But he admits that all options are open after the election. "We have no crystal ball, nor do we have any idea of how things will develop."
Presidency programme
On substance, Chastel believes the June national elections will have a limited impact on the presidency programme because practical aspects such as the agenda and logistics have already been agreed.
"When the Belgian government tendered its resignation, we had a lot of fears about the preparation of this presidency," said Chastel. "But very quickly, we realised […] that we were well advanced on the preparation" and that a caretaker government "would not fundamentally change things".
A lot of political parties were involved in shaping the presidency programme and it is unlikely that the new ruling coalition will want to modify it, he said. "In Belgium, approving an EU presidency programme is almost like approving a national policy programme," Chastel said, alluding to the difficulties in finding an accpetable compromise.
The programme will be approved on 16 June, just after the elections, and all parties "will have to work with it," he said.
Back-seat role
On style, he says Belgium will mark a "rupture" – or break – from current practice following the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in December, which created two new high-profile positions – an EU foreign policy chief and a permanent president of the European Council, which brings together heads of state and government.
He said this means the Belgian Presidency will take a back seat role to EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton and EU President Herman Van Rompuy.
"Both will have full responsibility for their entire field of competence," he said, adding that the Belgian presidency will not step aside but will implement "the Lisbon Treaty, all the Lisbon Treaty and nothing but the Lisbon Treaty".
On the foreign policy front, he made clear that the Belgian foreign affairs ministry and diplomacy "will be at [Ashton's] disposal – and I said at her disposal – to do everything she considers the rotating presidency should do. And not the opposite, not on an equal footing," he insisted.
In other words, "those who have a tradition for putting themselves forward: the head of state, in our case the prime minister and the foreign affairs minister," will be less visible, he said.
Reforming the euro
On specific reforms, like the governance of the euro, Chastel said this was an issue that Belgium "would like to see progressing significantly during our presidency".
But he said one should "remain humble" with regard to political momentum. "A presidency is very long and very short at the same time. And so I believe that, at 27, these last months, we have taken conscience of an inevitable evolution of eurozone governance, with the way our economies should be much more concurrent and interacting".
"This is obvious. It is economic union that must be put in place alongside monetary union. You can use whatever term you want – economic governance, economic government."
Belgian state reform
Returning to the internal political front, Chastel says Belgium has come "to the end of a political cycle" and that the state reform called for by Flemish parties, which want more devolution of power to the regional level, will eventually have to take place.
"We have to reform the Belgian house in order to restart on a good basis for the next 10, 15 or 20 years, and put back the compromise [culture] at the centre of Belgian political life."
But he set out a number of "red zones" that French-speaking parties will refuse to cross in the negotiations. For example, some parties in Flanders have called for more devolution of power to regions, including social security, but Chastel says this is a no-go area.
"Yes, we have a few red zones: we want a country that has a strong link between its citizens and therefore the whole social security aspect, for example, should remain an unshakable element of the federal state."
In particular, he said the protection of French-speaking minorities will be "an absolute principle" in negotiations over splitting the Brussels-Hal-Vilvoorde electoral district surrounding the Belgian capital.
"We will have to solve this problem after the election but we will also have to solve much more fundamental problems regarding the functioning of the Belgian state," he said, including the distribution of competences between the federal, regional and community levels.
But he doubts that the EU presidency will provide a catalyst for reviving the legendary art of the "Belgian compromise".
"I am not sure that the presidency can be a catalyst to solve these emotional problems. Everybody wants [the presidency] to succeed, everybody is committed to it, but in my opinion, it will not influence positions in one way or another."
To read a full transcript of the interview (in French), click here
