Bulgaria should have ambitious objectives for cutting greenhouse gas emissions so that it can transform itself from an extremely energy-intensive economy into one that is at least competitive or close to the average, argues Georgi Stefanov, a climate change expert at the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in Sofia.
Stefanov was referring to the EU's '20/20/20' targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions and boosting renewable energies, outlined in the EU's climate and energy package and adopted as part of the new 'Europe 2020' strategy for growth and jobs (see 'Background'). However, Bulgarian industry representatives consider these targets to be unrealistic.
Bulgaria is one of the leading countries in implementing the targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The reason for this is the restructuring of the country's economy following the collapse of the communist model, which brought about the closure of many heavy industries.
In an interview with Dnevnik, WWF's Stefanov said that implementing the targets of the EU's new strategy would stimulate the creation of new technologies, new employment opportunities and less CO2. However, he expressed fears that Bulgaria would not see opportunities to increase revenues and modernise businesses by making an effort to reach the targets.
If the targets imposed on Bulgaria are not reached, then industry will have to endure draconian financial restrictions and many badly-managed sectors will collapse – bringing more unemployment to the country, he warned.
Heavy industry and energy-producing sectors are most affected by reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. ''But as these sectors are well-informed about the compulsory measures to implement, my opinion is that in the coming years it will be the transport sector that will suffer much more from the restrictions,'' he said.
''[The reason is that] on one hand, this is a sector that clearly has increased its greenhouse emissions, and on the other hand, it will be included at a later stage in the emissions schemes,'' Stefanov told Dnevnik. For his part, Dimitar Brankov, representative and deputy president of the Bulgarian Business Association (BBA), said that the new schemes for emissions reduction would mostly affect the energy sector – and more specifically thermal power stations. According to Brankov, alternatives such as photo voltaic installations or wind farms are very expensive.
The low cost of electricity produced by Bulgaria's nuclear power plant Kozloduy, priced at only 39 BGN (€20) per MWh, implies that the country should develop further nuclear capacities that will provide an opportunity for low-carbon development at the lowest cost to society, Brankov argues. Despite the difficulties that Bulgarian business will probably face, the government supported the conclusions of the EU's economy and finance ministers on 11 June. The European Commission proposed emission reductions of 30% by 2020 and the ministers agreed.
Although the EU has taken the decision to slash emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, there is still no agreed burden-sharing between the member states, explained Milia Dimitrova, director of climate change policy at the Bulgarian Environment Ministry. The official government position, presented by Dimitrova, is that the transition to a 30% target must be preceded by a detailed assessment of the costs for individual member states and the consequences for their economies.
WWF's Stefanov, however, spoke in optimistic terms about the 30% greenhouse gas emission reduction target. This is the minimum target that should be reached and all arguments against it are simply the result of lobbying by big business, he claimed. Yet BBA representative Brankov does not view the EU's new and more ambitious emissions targets so positively. He expects that Bulgaria will probably have to reduce its emissions by over 70% compared to 1988 levels.
1988 was the reference year according to which Bulgaria managed to cut its emissions for the period 2008-2012 by 8% under the Kyoto Protocol.
