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EU fears unrest in Afghanistan over elections

Published 18 August 2009
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The EU, which is involved in helping organize the presidential elections in Afghanistan to be held on 20 August, fears a surge of violence in the period before the expected run-off, diplomatic sources told EurActiv.

An escalation of violence is fueling concerns over the security situation in Afghanistan just two days ahead of a crucial poll. A suicide car bomb attacked a NATO convoy today (18 August) on the outskirts of Kabul, killing at least seven civilians and wounding more than 50 people, agencies reported. Afghans working for the United Nations were among the dead and wounded.

In a separate accident, two American service members have been killed and three others wounded in a roadside bomb blast in eastern Afghanistan.

Earlier in the day, Taliban fighters fired a rocket into the grounds of the presidential palace in Kabul. On 15 August a suicide car bomb attack killed seven people and wounded 100 outside the NATO-led ISAF headquarters in Kabul, near the U.S. embassy. 

Destabilisation strategy

Taliban militants seek to destabilise the country and discourage Afghanis from voting, as a challenge to US president Barack Obama’s strategy to give more resources and strategic direction to the NATO mission in Afghanistan (EurActiv 16/04/09). The press reported Taliban threats to cut off anyone’s fingers tainted by indelible ink during the vote. 

The EU, which decided to engage more in Afghanistan by wielding 'soft power', including financial and technical assistance for the presidential elections, fears that the gap between the expected two rounds of elections will be used by Taliban and warlords to disrupt Western strategies, sources told this website. 

Polls show that incumbent president Hamid Karzai would win Thursday’s vote, but he would not gather the majority needed to avoid a second round. 

Sweden, who holds the EU rotating presidency, opened an embassy in Kabul last year. Its ambassador Svante Kilander expressed his satisfaction that Kabul is covered with electoral posters and that a debate organised by the embassy took place between candidates. 

”But there is a risk that there will be a second round of elections and then the elections may be delayed,” the ambassador said in a press release, published by the EU presidency website. 

‘Imperfect elections’ 

Sweden’s foreign minister Carl Bildt recently admitted in an op-ed article in the Stockholm daily Aftonbladet, that the resurgence of the Taliban is partly due to 'initial mistakes' and the failure to create 'a functioning justice system and reasonably competent administration' in Afghanistan. 

“The elections will unlikely be perfect but they are important for Afghanistan's future and therefore for the stability and developments in the important region that links Central and South Asia,' Bildt wrote. In early September, Bildt is to host an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers and a likely topic will be European peace and development efforts in Afghanistan. 

Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, is Karzai’s main challenger whom he is expected to face at the run-off in early October. Abdullah accuses the incumbent president to ignore corruption and to release opium traders from jail. Karzai’s brother Ahmed Wali is mulled to control drug trade in the province of Kandahar. 

Karzai is also criticised for choosing as vice presidential candidate Mohammed Qasim Fahim, a warlord for the Northern Alliance (the main opposition during the Taliban rule and a U.S. ally in defeating the Taliban in 2001). Karzai also has reportedly enlisted as his supporters Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former warlord and prime minister, considered by the US as a "global terrorist" and Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek warlord, who was in exile, but returned safely to Afghanistan days ago with a government clearance. 

In fact, Karzai pledged that if he is re-elected, he will invite members of the Taliban, ‘to make peace’. The US and NATO, on the other side, reportedly reject the process of reconciliation at this stage, as in their view this could become possible from a position of strength, not of weakness. 

The Western press also criticised Karzai for recently approving a law condoning marital rape, which in fact permits Shia men to refuse to give food to their wives if they do not have sex with them. It was also reported that the US and Britain had decided not to react, from fears they could aggravate the situation on the eve of the poll. 

Denmark, however, issued a firmer response. Per Stig Moller, the Foreign Minister, said he had written to his Afghan counterpart to express his concern. 

Positions: 

Ahmed Rashid, adjunct Senior fellow for Pakistan, in the Pacific Council on International Policy, told the Council on Foreign Relations in a recent interview, that the situation before the run-off could prove extremely difficult. 

“If there is a runoff, you will have this critical six to eight weeks in which there will be accusations, charges, countercharges, a vacuum of leadership. It will be a very tricky political situation. Anything could happen in that period. There could be assassinations and the Taliban will step up their campaign. Internally, there could be a constitutional deadlock. The opposition could also say that they do not accept a runoff election with Karzai still in the chair, and that there should be an interim president. There could be all sorts of things with a runoff, which would really destabilize the situation,” Rashid said. 

Background: 

US-led forces drove the Taliban from power in Kabul in response to the 11 September 2001 attacks on US targets, planned by Osama bin Laden from bases in Afghanistan. 

There are currently some 100,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan, of which the United States supplies 62,000. 

Western powers are concerned not only by the Taliban's advances in Afghanistan, where security analysts estimate that they have a permanent presence in at least 70% of the nation. but also by its influence in Pakistan, where Islamic militants have disrupted NATO's supply convoys to Afghanistan and are securing concessions from the government in Islamabad. 

On 17 February, US President Barack Obama authorised sending an additional 17,000 US soldiers to Afghanistan, including more than 12,000 combat forces, to counter an increasingly fierce Taliban insurgency. US officials have long been frustrated by European reluctance to make new long-term troop commitments to the Afghan mission. 

Recently, Brussels decided to engage more in Afghanistan, especially in the field of nation-building (EurActiv 23/02/09). The EU launched EUPOL Afghanistan in June 2007. As for Afghan presidential election planned for Thursday (20 August), the EU is largely funding these efforts, estimated to cost over $200 million. 

The President of Afghanistan is appointed for a five-year term. Approximately forty candidates stand in the election. 

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