"The problems caused by [the recent Russia-Ukraine gas dispute] are clearly problems of a European nature and they will not be solved until the EU itself becomes a protagonist," willing to deal with the political dimension of its relationships and developing the tools to do so, said Sherr, who heads the Russia and Eurasia programme at the London-based institution.
Another problem is that "in Slovakia and in the Czech Republic, as well as in a number of other countries in Europe, there is a narrow, almost provincial understanding" of what the gas crisis was about, says Sherr, who holds both British and US citizenship. "It is going to be impossible for Russia and Ukraine to […] resolve [their] problems by themselves," he warns.
EU countries must realise that "it is impossible to separate the purely commercial factors in this relationship from the political and geopolitical factors," argues the advisor to the British government and NATO on issues concerning Russia, Ukraine and the Black Sea region.
"First, in this crisis, Russia consistently and conspicuously behaved like a country that is not part of the Euro-Atlantic community and has no wish to be a part of it. Second, Ukraine conspicuously failed to behave like a country that wishes to be part of the Euro-Atlantic community," the analyst declares.
Describing the Black Sea region as "the vital point of connection between Europe and the wider Middle East," Sherr warns that because "Russia is struggling to remain a major Black Sea power," it has "invested all of its efforts and continues to invest its efforts into making sure that no project occurs or succeeds without Russian participation".
Moving on to Georgia, the analyst believes "it would not be in anyone’s interest" for it to join NATO yet. "It is only in the interest of a country to join NATO when its membership would strengthen its own security" and that of the alliance, which is not the case for Tbilisi, he explains.
Western countries must "strengthen Georgia’s security and its self-confidence [and] demonstrate beyond doubt to Russia that its desire to use recent events to weaken or destroy the viability of Georgia has no chance of success". To do so, "the West as a whole has to establish far deeper influence on Georgia itself," Sherr warns.
Finally, the analyst outlines his belief that "Russia created enormous problems for itself" and "magnified its own security threats" by recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia, because "neither are viable as independent states".
"President Kokoity of South Ossetia openly stated in my presence that an independent South Ossetia has no future, that it will of course unite with North Ossetia and both will be absorbed by the Russia Federation," Sherr revealed.
