Many commentators see the role of Herman Van Rompuy, the EU’s first permanent president, as more of a chairman than a visionary leader (EurActiv 23/11/09).
"The EU is in a period of consolidation and the European Council was clearly looking for a president who could provide continuity in the management of its business […] and build longer-term relationships on the international stage," Caroline Wunnerlich, managing director of Fleishman-Hillard Europe, told EurActiv.
'Chairmanship role' for Van Rompuy
"Van Rompuy seems well suited to this chairmanship role, a role that could ultimately be mainly internally focused," Wunnerlich said, adding: "The rejection of Tony Blair as a candidate for the presidency suggests that this is exactly how France and Germany see the role."
Wunnerlich predicted that Van Rompuy's relationship with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, prime minister of incoming presidency holder Spain, would be of greater short-term importance than that with Baroness Ashton in determining the scope of his role.
Others disagree. Elaine Cruikshanks, CEO of the Brussels arm of public affairs firm Hill & Knowlton, told EurActiv that "the exact separation of duties between the two will largely depend on their personalities and the kind of common understanding they will develop of their respective functions".
Practically, Cruikshanks expects Van Rompuy to represent the EU "only at international summits attended by heads of state and government," with Ashton attending "external meetings at ministerial level" (EurActiv 01/12/09).
Personalities to define roles
The PA bosses were divided over how important Baroness Ashton's role will prove to be, although all agreed that the evolution of their roles would be defined by their personalities.
Indeed, Ashton herself admitted yesterday that she is still in the dark as to her precise job description as it is "brand new". "I don't have anything except me. It's not an excuse, it's just a reality. We're actually still working on what the [Lisbon] Treaty means, in terms of pulling our budget together [and] what it means [regarding] the relationship with the rotating [EU] presidency," she told MEPs during a question-and-answer session in the European Parliament.
As well as holding a vice-presidency of the Commission, the former trade commissioner will lead the European External Action Service, the EU's diplomatic corps, which brings together 6,000 officials from the European Commission, permanent Council staff and national ministries, explained Fleishman-Hillard's Wunnerlich.
"This certainly sounds like a foreign minister with far more resources at her disposal than [former EU foreign affairs chief Javier] Solana," she said.
Piotr Maciej Kaczyński, research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a think-tank, suggested that Ashton is more likely to emerge as a figure on the world stage than Van Rompuy.
"Taking account of the treaty provisions and their self-pronounced ambitions, I see Van Rompuy as more of a Council chair," he told EurActiv, predicting that Ashton would be more active globally despite the fact that "running the external action service will take up a lot of her time".
"When she took office, she said 'judge me by my actions', and she will be active," Kaczyński said, pointing out that it will fall to Ashton to communicate the EU's common position on matters related to foreign and security policy to the UN Security Council.
But Julia Harrison, managing partner at Brussels-based consultancy Blueprint Partners, disagreed, telling EurActiv that "Van Rompuy's role is larger as he will preside over European Council meetings as well as jetting around the world". By contrast, she said, Ashton "will take up where Solana has left off in foreign affairs".
"Ashton's Council role will not differ hugely from […] Solana's: she will have to carefully build a consensus among member states in order to be heard in her dealings with the outside world," Harrison said.
'Turf struggles' predicted
However, Georg Danell, managing partner at the Brussels office of Kreab Gavin Anderson, believes there is scope for Ashton to assume a stronger role than Solana given that she is in charge of such a large team.
"Much will depend on the way relations develop between the High Representative, the president of the Council and […] the president of the Commission," Danell said. "The treaty certainly leaves scope for turf struggles, but looking at the personalities now in place this seems less likely than might have been feared," he added.
CEPS analyst Kaczyński, meanwhile, believes rivalry is more likely to emerge between Van Rompuy/Ashton and large EU member states or rotating presidencies than it is between the two new faces themselves.
"Who will represent the EU in global crisis situations?" he asked, adding: "I can't imagine the French or UK foreign ministers keeping quiet and letting Ashton take to the stage in a Middle East crisis."
Fleishman-Hillard's Wunnerlich concluded with a word of warning. "Whilst there is a huge amount for Rompuy and Ashton to do, the bottom line must remain that they will only make progress if the member states accept the need for a concerted EU approach to the external problems" facing the Union and "are willing to toughen up policy vis-à-vis the rest of the world," she said.
Blueprint's Harrison echoed this view. "They will have to form an effective partnership and cultivate the same member-state governments, so being in conflict over who does what will not be in their interests, or probably even in their characters," she said.
