Brussels suggested freezing over €495 million beginning January 2013 if Hungary fails to take measures to bring its deficit below 3% of GDP.
According to Commission estimates, Hungary will see its deficit jump to 3.25% of its GDP in 2013 despite several warnings urging Budapest to contain it.
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Hungary’s deficit has stood above the benchmark for many years since it joined the EU in 2004.
The EU Council of Ministers, which represents the 27 EU member states, had endorsed the Commission’s warnings in January, and asked the EU Executive to issue a new recommendation to Hungary based on the so-called "excessive deficit procedure".
Despite the Council's backing, the Commission's move is highly controversial. Hungary’s budget deficit for 2011 and 2012 is broadly in line with EU requirements but only “thanks to one-off revenues,” such as a taxes on telecom firms, banks and junk food, which have raised eyebrows in Brussels.
Moreover, this would be the first time that the European Commission launched an infringement proceeding against a country on the basis of projected violations, and not on actual breaches of EU laws.
The Hungarian government reacted angrily, describing the Commission’s decision as “unfounded and unfair”. Hungary’s deficit is currently among the lowest in the EU, and therefore does not deserve to be sanctioned, Budapest said in a statement.
It also claims that, following the Commission’s warnings, the government adopted measures that are expected to bring the deficit below 3% in 2013, putting it in line with EU laws. Even without this correction, the Commission's own estimate anticipates a deficit which is only slightly above the 3% threshold, it argues.
Andor, responsible for employment and social affairs, echoed these remarks in a letter sent to the college of commissioners ahead of yesterday’s decision. “We need to be able to explain why a country with a headline fiscal deficit expected to be only slightly above the 3% benchmark is being targeted under this procedure while there are many other member states with much higher headline deficits,” he said in the letter, seen by EurActiv.
Andor, an economics professor in Hungary before joining the Commission in 2010 and appointed by the previous Socialist government, also questioned the credibility of the Commission’s economic forecasts. “We will need to be able to defend the robustness of our forecasts for 2013 at a time of extreme uncertainty,” he wrote.
The Commission will issue later today its biannual interim economic forecasts that will cover all EU member states and not only the seven biggest economies. Announcing the exercise last week, the Commission said such an exceptional forecast had become necessary “due to rapidly changing economic circumstances. ”
In his letter, Andor also called on the college of commissioners to ease the sanctions on Hungary. “The suspended commitments should be as minimal as possible, and definitely not exceed the level of 0.5% of GDP,” reads his letter. The proposed sanctions were set at 0.5% of Hungary's GDP.
The Council of member states will have to endorse the Commission’s proposed sanctions before they become law.
A different objective?
But the Commission's decision might in fact pursue a different objective.
In January, the EU executive issued a harsh statement against Hungary’s controversial changes to its constitution and basic laws. “As guardian of the Treaties, the Commission remains preoccupied that a number of the new provisions may violate EU law,” the statement says.
The main concerns relate to the independence of the Hungarian central bank, measures concerning the appointment of judges and rules affecting the independence of the news media.
Without “prejudging the final outcome of its analysis”, the Commission said it would “fully use all its powers to analyse the compatibility of national law with EU law and reserves the right to take any steps that it deems appropriate, namely the possibility of launching infringement procedures pursuant to Article 258 of the Treaty.”
Andor himself seemed to question the real target of the proposed sanctions. “I can see that the proposal will require an important communication effort to avoid a link that is very easy to be made with the ongoing infringement proceedings against Hungary and with overall political developments,” he said in his letter.