UK election hangs in balance on disastrous night for May

UK Prime Minister Theresa May waits for the result of the vote in her constituency at the count centre for the general election.Maidenhead,9 June.[Reuters]

Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting to hold on to her job today(9 June)as British voters denied her the stronger mandate she had sought to lead the country into divorce talks with the European Union.

With no clear winner emerging from yesterday’s parliamentary election,a wounded May signalled she would fight on,despite being on course to lose her majority in the House of Commons.Her Labour rival Jeremy Corbyn said she should step down.

An updated BBC forecast predicted May’s Conservatives would win 318 of the 650 seats, eight short of a majority, while Corbyn’s left-wing Labour would take 267 — producing a “hung parliament” and potential deadlock.

Sky News predicted May would score somewhere between 315 and 325 seats.

With talks of unprecedented complexity on Britain’s departure from the European Union due to start in just 10 days’ time, there was uncertainty over who would form the next government and over the fundamental direction Brexit would take.

Delaying Brexit talks?

Britain may have to delay Brexit talks in the absence of a majority for May’s Conservative Party, JPMorgan said.

“Perhaps the most obvious conclusion is that the likelihood of the UK needing to request a delay in the Brexit process has risen substantially, given the chance that political developments in the UK disturb what is already a time-compressed process,” said Malcolm Barr, economist at JPMorgan, in a research note.

“At this time, more than anything else this country needs a period of stability,” a grim-faced May said after winning her own parliamentary seat of Maidenhead, near London.

“If … the Conservative Party has won the most seats and probably the most votes then it will be incumbent on us to ensure that we have that period of stability and that is exactly what we will do.”

After winning his own seat in north London, Corbyn said May’s attempt to win a bigger mandate had backfired.

“The mandate she’s got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support and lost confidence,” he said.

“I would have thought that’s enough to go, actually, and make way for a government that will be truly representative of all of the people of this country.”

May had unexpectedly called the snap election seven weeks ago, even though no vote was due until 2020. At that point, polls predicted she would massively increase the slim majority she had inherited from predecessor David Cameron before launching into the Brexit talks.

Instead, she risked an ignominious exit after just 11 months at Number 10 Downing Street, which would be the shortest tenure of any prime minister for almost a century.

‘May is toast’

“Whatever happens, Theresa May is toast,” said Nigel Farage, former leader of the anti-EU party UKIP.

May had spent the campaign denouncing Corbyn as the weak leader of a spendthrift party that would crash Britain’s economy and flounder in Brexit talks, while she would provide “strong and stable leadership” to clinch a good deal for Britain.

But her campaign unravelled after a major policy u-turn on care for the elderly, while Corbyn’s traditional socialist platform and more impassioned campaigning style won wider support than anyone had foreseen.

“Could be messy for the United Kingdom in the years ahead. One mess risks following another. Price to be paid for lack of true leadership,” tweeted former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, one of the EU’s elder statesmen.

Sterling fell by more than two cents against the US dollar after an exit poll showed May losing her majority, though it later recovered some of its losses.

“A hung parliament is the worst outcome from a markets perspective as it creates another layer of uncertainty ahead of the Brexit negotiations and chips away at what is already a short timeline to secure a deal for Britain,” said Craig Erlam, an analyst with brokerage Oanda in London.

With the smaller parties more closely aligned with Labour than with the Conservatives, the prospect of Corbyn becoming prime minister no longer seems fanciful.

That would make the course of Brexit even harder to predict. During his three decades on Labour’s leftist fringe, Corbyn consistently opposed European integration and denounced the EU as a corporate, capitalist body.

As party leader, he unenthusiastically campaigned for Britain to remain in the bloc, but has said that Labour would deliver Brexit if in power. The party has not given a detailed plan for Brexit but has said its priorities would be to maintain the benefits of both the EU single market and its customs union.

Potential alliances

If the Conservatives end up falling just short of a majority, they could potentially turn for support to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a natural ally, projected to win 10 seats.

But Labour had potential allies too, not least the Scottish National Party (SNP) who suffered major setbacks but still won a majority of Scottish seats.

The pro-EU, centre-left Liberal Democrats were having a mixed night. Their former leader, Nick Clegg, who was deputy prime minister from 2010 to 2015, lost his seat. But former business minister Vince Cable won his back, and party leader Tim Farron held on.

In domestic policy, Labour proposes raising taxes for the richest 5% of Britons, scrapping university tuition fees, investing 250 billion pounds ($315 billion) in infrastructure plans and re-nationalizing the railways and postal service.

Early results were in line with the exit poll, with Labour doing better than expected. That was in part because votes that had previously gone to UKIP were splitting evenly between the two major parties instead of going overwhelmingly to the Conservatives as pundits had expected.

“UKIP voters wanted Brexit but they also want change,” Farage said.

“They are fundamentally anti-establishment in their attitudes and the vicar’s daughter (May) is very pro-establishment. And I think she came across in the campaign as not only as wooden and robotic but actually pretty insincere.”

In Scotland, the pro-independence SNP were in retreat despite winning most seats. Having won all but three of Scotland’s 59 seats in the British parliament in 2015, their share of the vote fell sharply and they lost seats to the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Alex Salmond, the SNP’s former leader and the former head of Scotland’s devolved government, was among those who lost their seats, along with the leader of the SNP’s lawmakers in the London parliament, Angus Robertson.

The campaign had played out differently in Scotland than elsewhere, with the SNP’s drive for a second independence referendum the main faultline. All the parties that made gains oppose independence

SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it had been a disappointing night for her party, while Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said Sturgeon should take the prospect of a second independence referendum off the table.

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