Western European countries are expected to suffer more from the Brexit vote than Europe’s East, a new study has found.
Analysts from the Munich-based CESifo research group have warned that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have a direct impact on the global economy, but some countries will be affected more than others.
The researchers noted in a new study that in the immediate future, the UK itself will suffer the most, followed by Western European countries such as France, Spain, Belgium, and Italy.
Impact on the UK and the Republic of Ireland will be “strongly negative” this year in particular, while for the rest of Europe the effect will be “only negative”.
Central and Eastern European countries, except Latvia and Serbia, will only “slightly” feel the effects of the Brexit vote because even those that are EU members maintain low-level trade relations with the UK.
Meanwhile, the Commonwealth will hardly be shaken by the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Poland’s eurosceptic government has long said it would like Poles living in Britain to return home, but it is now promising to fight for their right to stay after the British vote to leave the European Union.
According to the study, Western European countries will find themselves in a better position in the medium term, as consequences for them will be “slightly negative”.
In the next three to five years, the Republic of Ireland will still be affected in a “strongly negative way”. However, the study stressed that the United Kingdom would suffer less than the Republic of Ireland in the mid-term.
Other EU member states will be “slightly affected”, except for Portugal, Poland, and Sweden, which are predicted to be badly affected in the next three to five years.
This hit to the Polish economy could be explained by the 790,000 Polish-born people working in the UK whose future could be uncertain, depending on a future agreement between the UK and the EU.
The campaign to leave the European Union pledged to stem immigration, including from EU countries like Poland.
Poland has said it will seek to preserve the right for its citizens to work and access welfare benefits in the UK.