Conducted by EuroCARE GmbH, a German consultancy on the agricultural economy, the study predicts "huge increases" in basic commodity prices if the review is adopted without changes.
The study predicts a 20%-69% increase in wheat prices, 19%-58% in potato prices and significant increases for animal products, which are expected to be affected by increased feed imports, said Marcel Adenauer, who presented the report on 9 October.
"Our results are quite similar" to a recent study from Italian research institute Nomisma (EurActiv 05/02/08), Adenauer said.
The findings of the Nomisma study, which argued that stringent EU rules on pesticides will lead to a decline in European agricultural self-sufficiency, ever-increasing food prices and job losses in the agri-food sector, was rejected by environmental activists, who derided the study as "professional scaremongering".
Adenauer also admitted that "there are several uncertainties around these figures" as they do not take account of any technological or policy changes or fluctuations in international trade. The EuroCARE economic analysis is thus a prediction of a situation assuming that no pesticide is substituted and that policies remain the same.
The recent Nomisma study was also based on the "worst case scenario", noted Stefano Baldi, a researcher at the institute.
Irish MEP Mairead McGuinness (IE, EPP) described both studies as "an important part of the jigsaw in examining the impact of the [pesticides] legislative review on food prices," adding that consumers would be shocked to discover that prices could, in the worst-case scenario, rise by over 100%.
But price increases could also be lower if the potential lost output was made up with imports, said Sean Rickard of the Cranfield School of Management. Yet this would not only lead to reliance on food quality standards, it would also mean less sustainable EU farms and reductions in domestic production, Rickard warns. What's more, it would risk job losses in many food processing and manufacturing sectors and have an adverse effect on the EU's international food trade, he added.
Whether or not the currently proposed pesticides review would actually lead to reduced agricultural productivity and higher food prices remains to be seen. But the European pesticides industry is calling on the Commission to carry out an impact study on the revamped proposal before adopting any major changes.
The truth is that "we are already running out of solutions for some vegetables," said Friedhelm Schmider, director general of the European Crop Protection Association (ECPA).
Following the Council's adoption of a common position on the pesticides review last month, pesticide manufacturers are calling on the Commission to provide a full impact study before adopting the proposed changes. "The recently tabled report [Commission's impact assessment of the proposed legislation] is based on a limited selection of available literature, and appears to have reached conclusions without considering all the relevant issues," argued Schmider.
