Current proposals to include aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will fail to significantly reduce aviation's rapidly growing contribution to climate change, according to a report published on 4 September by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester.
The report, which was commissioned by green lobby group Friends of the Earth, warns that the proposal "does not reflect the urgency and time-critical nature of the climate problem".
It calls for airlines to be brought into the ETS by 2010 at the latest, bearing in mind that passenger numbers, and hence aviation emissions, are currently growing at around 6-7% per year.
Immediate interim measures aimed at limiting the sector's growth will also be necessary, it adds.
Furthermore, the study calls for a much tighter cap, based on 1990 - or even earlier - levels (rather than on average emissions from 2004-2006), with full auctioning of emission credits (rather than giving them to airlines for free) and limited or no opportunities to purchase credits from other sectors.
If such conditions are not imposed, the price of carbon permits will likely remain at current levels of less than €50 per tonne – barely affecting ticket prices or demand for flights, claims the report - adding that carbon prices "well in excess of €300/tonne" will be necessary to significantly curb demand as well as emissions growth.
