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Cameron's speech to clear doubts about UK fate in Europe

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Published 15 January 2013, updated 21 January 2013

Prime Minister David Cameron will spell out plans to dilute Britain's membership in the European Union on Friday (18 January) in the Netherlands, a move that could reshape its role in the world, upset some of the premier's allies and decide his government's fate.

On Monday (14 January), when the date for the long talked about speech was finally fixed, the Conservative leader disappointed some in his party by rejecting calls for a quick referendum on leaving the bloc. But he did seem to offer the public the prospect of a vote after renegotiating London's terms of membership.

In what could be one of the most fateful speeches on Europe by a British leader since World War Two, Cameron is expected to say the euro crisis and the closer integration it is driving is a chance for Britain, which has rejected the single currency, to establish a more arms-length relationship with its 26 partners.

Critics say his manoeuvring risks setting in chain an unpredictable sequence of events that could see Britain quit the Union - willingly or unwillingly - and leave the world's sixth largest economy looking like an offshore version of Switzerland or Norway, with considerably less influence than it now wields.

But Cameron, leading a party and a country with a strong anti-European streak, dismisses such talk as fear-mongering. He says he wants Britain to remain in a reformed EU but to seize back control of areas of public life where he and others believe Brussels' influence has become overbearing and pernicious.

In his speech, Cameron is likely to identify major policy areas - from immigration to employment law and legal affairs - where he wants to claw back core competencies from the EU.

"Right now I think there are a lot of people who say 'I would like to be in Europe, but I'm not happy with every aspect of the relationship, so I want it changed'. That is my view," he told the BBC in an interview on Monday.

With anti-EU feeling on the rise at home, he is likely to promise a rare referendum on any new settlement he manages to broker, part of a process that risks upsetting many countries in the EU, by far Britain's biggest trading partner.

"It would be an act of mutual weakness for the UK and for Europe if Britain were to leave the Union," French European Commissioner Michel Barnier said on Monday.

That message was reinforced by a French diplomatic source in the office of President François Hollande who said Britain could not have an "a la carte" Europe: "Britain cannot be like Norway in terms of its obligations and still benefit from the single market," the source said.

JoaquÍn Almunia, the vice president of the European Commission, said a British decision to leave the EU would be "very bad" for other member states and "a disaster" for London, and he thought it would be "extremely difficult" for Cameron to renegotiate ties with the bloc.

"When you belong to a club you cannot be an influential member saying I don't want to accept this provision," he told the BBC's Hardtalk program.

Cameron on a tight spot

Britain joined the bloc in 1973.

Cameron is in a tight spot. Opinion polls have consistently shown that a slim majority of the British public wants to leave the EU and a powerful clique inside his own party is pressuring him to call an "in or out" referendum.

He is also in danger of being outflanked on the issue by an upstart political party whose popularity has surged.

Yet prominent business leaders, the opposition Labour party, and figures like former Labour prime minister Tony Blair have warned that his stance risks damaging inward investment and damaging Britain's standing on the world stage.

The issue is potentially career-ending for Cameron. Margaret Thatcher, one of his predecessors, was ousted by her party over the EU and it is a subject that has triggered bitter infighting.

The United States, a close ally, is watching closely. A senior US official made an unusually forceful diplomatic intervention into what is an emotive domestic debate last week, saying Washington wanted Britain to stay inside the EU and remain a "strong voice".

That appeared to be a calculated message sent at a time when Cameron was putting the finishing touches to his Europe speech.

Anti-EU rhetoric to deepen coalition rift

Many Britons blame the EU for what they regard as excessive immigration and say they want Britain to seize back full control of its borders and for British judges to not be subordinate to supranational bodies such as the European Court of Justice.

But many others in the EU are growing exasperated by what they see as Britain's new doubts about the European project.

An ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on 10 January that Cameron risked isolating Britain and paralysing European integration if he held a referendum, while Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny has described the idea of Britain quitting the EU as "disastrous".

Complicating matters is the pro-EU stance of Cameron's coalition partners in the two-party government, the centre-left Liberal Democrats.

Their leader Nick Clegg has described talk of repatriating powers from Brussels as a "false promise wrapped in a Union Jack" and strong anti-EU rhetoric in Cameron's speech could deepen rifts in the coalition.

Liberal Democrat foreign policy spokesman Martin Horwood said flirting with an EU exit would be taking an "insane risk" with the British economy.

"There are alarm bells ringing in governments around the world that Britain is on some path to exit and that David Cameron hasn't stood up to the Euroskeptics, or Europhobes, in his own party," he told Reuters.

However, anything less than offering a vote containing an option to quit the EU would anger many Conservative lawmakers.

"He could unite 95% of the Conservative Party if he were to announce a renegotiation of the terms of our relationship with Europe followed by an in-out referendum," said Peter Bone, a Conservative Euroskeptic lawmaker.

Any member state has the right to secede from the European Union, though none has ever done so.

Cameron says he is acutely aware of the economic benefits of trading with a single market of 500 million Europeans. The bloc accounts for around half of Britain's trade.

Opposition leader Ed Miliband, whose Labour Party has a 12-point opinion poll lead over the Conservatives, said on Sunday (13 January) it would be "incredibly dangerous" to commit to a referendum on Britain's EU membership: "The prime minister," he said, "Is sleep-walking us towards the exit door."

Next steps: 
  • 18 Jan. 2013: Much-anticipated landmark speech by Cameron on UK relationship with EU
EurActiv.com with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • What is the logic of a renegotiation of the terms of our relationship with Europe followed by an in-out referendum"? Pragmatism would suggest the other way round. Should we assume that people there in Brussels are ready to accept anything from the UK?
    It seems -if I remember- that somewhere in the drawers of the EU there is a paper titled "accession Terms".

    By :
    Elio PENNISI
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • "employment law" Tory toffs want the plebs to work longer (and harder hours) for less money.

    One scenario is that Camoron makes the Libdems so unhappy that they leave the coalition and an early general election is called - given that Camoron failed to get his boundary changes this points to a Labour-scum victory - is that what you want Dive?

    Still, what to expect when a bunch of amateurs (born to lead - unfit to govern) of the ilk of Camoron end up in government. UK business (such as it isn't) is somewhat unhappy with all these goings-on, but it does not count these days - only the banksters (Tory party funders) have the ear of UK government (oh and Mrs Queen and her son big ears - by all accounts - see the Guardian headline today - Rurtitania writ large).

    By :
    Mike Parr
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • Sorry for the additonal post:

    "Opinion polls have consistently shown that a slim majority of the British public wants to leave the EU"

    perhaps, but the same could be said wrt "bring back hanging" after some unpleasant murders - I don't notice the UK body politic supporting this move (oh erm... if they leave the EC perhaps they could? - that would be fun - they could then be a bit more like their master - the USofA).

    By :
    Mike Parr
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • Mike Parr - you sound like Kim Philby having a rant about how he hated the UK and that anything else was better.
    Thankfully most of us haven't given up and have the best interests of the country at heart - in or out of the EU.

    By :
    Edward99
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • Edward 99, Philby - who he? I was attacking tory-vermin and Mrs Windysor - the comment with respect to UK citizens was that polls are unreliable. Most people have little idea what the EU does - and what ideas they do have come from porno comics such as The Sun, or quasi Fascist rags such as the Daily Mail.

    I like the UK and in many areas it is far more progressive than mainland Europe - thus it should stay in the EU and drive change (which would be to its advantage).

    Best interests of the country - and those would be?

    By :
    Mike Parr
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • It's irrelevant what Cameron says. He doesn't intend to give us a referendum before the next election. Effectively, that means he won't be Prime Minister.

    Britons will NEVER stop campaigning for our freedom. We are not natural Europeans, we do not belong in your "Union".

    By :
    Sue
    - Posted on :
    15/01/2013
  • @Sue
    Yes, you belong to Mars.

    By :
    Axel
    - Posted on :
    16/01/2013
  • As frenchman having lived in London in 1973-74, I recall that UK joined "THE COMMON MARKET as extension of the COMMONWEALTH". No question to join a "UNION" which market is becoming less profitable and a corset to UK financial interests.As subject of HER MAJESTY, you have to decide to pull out or not, as (for the sake of the UNION) we are becoming temporarily more "COMMONPOORNESS" to your modern dominant gentry. England has invented the guillotine and used it well before January 1793 in France. Why not used it for the "Union".

    By :
    CHG
    - Posted on :
    17/01/2013
Background: 

A potential British exit from the European Union has come at the top of the political agenda after Prime Minister David Cameron said that Britain must use the upheaval created by the eurozone crisis to forge a new relationship with the European Union.

With the onset of the eurozone crisis and the need for further economic and political integration, Cameron's Conservatives have increasingly sought to loosen Britainss ties and asked

to renegotiate the Union's treaties. Some favour an outright British exit from the EU with a turn towards strengthening economic ties with Commonwealth countries and the United States.

Britain has negotiated a number of opt-outs from key EU policy areas since its accession in 1973. The country is not part of the eurozone and has not signed the free-border Schengen Treaty and does not want to abide by a number of EU police and judicial cooperation rules.

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