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From Costa del Crime to Crimeshire, Cameron is walking on thin ice

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Published 18 January 2013
7 comments
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David Cameron Tories UK Conservatives UK in Europe

To be or not be in the EU has changed since Britain has joined the bloc in 1973. The challenges governments face - climate change, organised crime, staying competitive in a changing world economy - are global. And the EU is their best bet of taking those challenges head on, writes British MEP Graham Watson.

Sir Graham Watson is the UK Liberal Democrat MEP for South West England and Gibraltar, president of the ALDE Party and former leader of the ALDE Group in the European Parliament. He is one of the most senior British Liberal Democrats in EU politics and was recently ranked in the top 20 most influential Brits in EU policy-making.

"When people pay their taxes, they expect their government to do three things: keep them safe, protect their jobs and provide them with the basic public services. UK Prime Minister David Cameron risks undermining two of these basic pillars in just one speech.

One in ten UK jobs are dependent on our trade with and membership of the Single Market. Just this week Honda announced it will be cutting a colossal 800 jobs at its plant in my constituency in Swindon, due to the weak demand on the continent. This shows how intertwined our economic destiny is with that of Europe.

And if the leaks are true, this speech could make that even worse. Thanks to the enormous pressure on Cameron from the blindly nationalistic, anti European right of his party, he is walking our economic recovery on to very thin ice.

Furthermore, we already know the Tory - not Lib Dem - faction in the coalition government is minded to opt out of a whole raft of EU justice and home affairs measures. This would be a disaster.

Take the European Arrest Warrant, which as chair of the Justice and Home Affairs committee I piloted through the European Parliament in 2001. Although not perfect in its implementation, it has fast-tracked hundreds of criminals across borders to face justice.

Organisations from the Association of Chief Police Officers Scotland to Justice Across Borders are all saying that we have to work together to tackle serious crime such as the trade in illicit drugs, the trafficking of humans for sexual or labour exploitation and international paedophile rings.

If the UK pulls out of the EU's crime-busting system, it risks becoming a safe haven for criminals. Instead of the 'Costa del Crime' we saw in the 1970s and '80s when criminals used to hide from extradition in Spain, it will be 'Crimeshire' in the UK.

Don't get me wrong, I am proud of my country and what it has achieved. But I am not afflicted by a right-wing delusion: I know that Britain would be nothing if cast adrift in the Atlantic, detached from any major regional bloc.

It's just simple maths: who do I do business with, 60 million or 500 million? We know what the US think - as made clear by the Obama administration publicly urging the UK not to loosen ties with the EU. And I think the British public share this gut feeling - a recent opinion poll found that 40% of people think the UK would have less influence in the world if it left the EU.

The underlying point is this. If you had asked EU leaders 25 years ago why they were in the EU, they would have said that they are part of the club because it has given Europe the longest period of uninterrupted peace it has ever known. And that still holds true. 

But that isn't why the Merkels, Hollandes and Ruttes of this world are in the EU today. I wager that if you asked today's leaders why they are in the EU, they would say that the challenges their governments face - climate change, organised crime, staying competitive in a changing world economy - are global. And the EU is their best bet of taking those challenges head on."

COMMENTS

  • A worrying item if this gentleman is meant to be one of the most influential people the UK has in the EU given the quality of the analysis.

    “One in ten UK jobs are dependent on our trade with and membership of the Single Market.” I believe this is taken from an NISER paper examining the impact on the UK economy of leaving the EU, certainly they present the same initial statistic. But the authors of the paper go on to state that “around 175,000 (jobs) would be lost after three years, but these would be reabsorbed…..in the long term.” Thus they suggest that the impact of leaving on employment would be negligible (other than MEPs etc.) You can only accept the 10% figure would be actual job losses if you assume the EU would do zero trade with the UK and the UK could find no other markets whatsoever for any of the goods that previously would have gone to the EU.

    The European Arrest Warrant was originally supposed to be for serious offences. In 2009 the UK issued 220, Poland in the same year (with approx. 60% of UK population) issued 4,844. Of course the EAW also allows a country to have a person of any nationality tried in absentia and sentenced for a matter which is not an offence in their home country and without them even knowing they are on trial. I think most people would agree this is far from perfect. In short you are absolutely dependent on the quality of criminal justice being of the same standard in every EU country. Think Greek aircraft spotters for a moment when considering that.

    The views of the chief police officers should of course be considered, but these would be the same chief officers who have been illegally taking DNA samples from all arrested persons (including children as young as 10). Nothing in using the JHA opt out would prevent deportation of criminals (other than perhaps the ECHR) as was previously the case. There was never a problem as far as I am aware of the UK refusing to extradite offenders to other countries so the Crimeshire idea is more than a little farfetched.

    The trade argument is immensely complex, but I would point to a Dept of Business Innovation and Skills report of 2011 which estimated the loss to the UK economy of leaving the EU at -0.2 to -0.3% of GDP, but excluding regulatory burden savings that would emerge. (EU over regulation was estimated to cost the UK 6% of GDP in a Treasury Report signed off by Gordon Brown). As I say, complex and no doubt the above figures themselves are open to a lot more discussion. The Obama administration clearly does want the UK in the EU but as they said, for US interests not ours or indeed the EUs.

    The idea that the EU caused peace is hardly credible. What about NATO, several hundred thousand US / Canadian service personnel etc.? Anyway if we leave the EU does Sir Graham Watson believe the entire structure is so fragile it would come tumbling down or that we would suddenly be seized with a desire to militarily attack the EU or presumably fear an attack by them ?

    The EU has a very poor record in terms of staying competitive, anyone else remember the Lisbon Communique 2000 promising that by 2010 the EU would be “the most competitive, dynamic and knowledge based economy in the World.” The entire programme was abandoned in 2005, prior to the crash. The EU has blocked more than 20 GM crop types for 10 years whilst the rest of the World has moved on. The top EU research university (not in the UK) is rated 37 according to the Shanghai Index. So it goes on, and this has been happening for years not just since 2008.

    No one could deny the importance of addressing climate change. But to pretend the EU has much influence is at the least highly debateable. The Copenhagen climate change conference exposed the irrelevance of the EU when on the 18th December 2009 the US, China, Brazil, South Africa and India reached an agreement without a single European in the room.

    Merkel, Hollande, Rutte etc., want the EU for what they believe is their own national self-interest, to pretend otherwise is naïve in the extreme. No one could object to that, but many of us in the UK just think it is time we started actively working to the same principle. How many readers know for example that Germany, the biggest and best economy in the EU has been the third largest recipient of regional aid with 73bn euro, beaten only by Italy 80bn and Spain 131bn. (European Commission Regional Policy Directorate figures.) We all want trade and warm relations, but we do not want a single currency, foreign policy, social legislation, fiscal policy etc etc.

    If the author is so convinced that Britons will want to stay in the EU I assume he will be urging Mr Clegg to put it to a direct vote of the people at the earliest opportunity? Given what he believes are the self-evident benefits I imagine he would expect a landslide.

    By :
    Iwantout
    - Posted on :
    18/01/2013

  • ‘Al Qaeda 1, @David_Cameron 0’

    When an MEP's judgement is as good as the disgusting tweet above he really needs to consider his position in politics.

    I know that your leader has forced you to remove the tweet and apologise, but there is absolutely no excuse for it in the first place.

    I hope that the voters in the South West of England bear this in mind come the European elections.

    George Mc

    By :
    George Mc
    - Posted on :
    20/01/2013

  • @ Iwantout

    An excellent post with much food for thought!

    George Mc

    By :
    George Mc
    - Posted on :
    20/01/2013

  • @Iwantout:

    The European Arrest Warrant is about serious offences. The British implementation of the text in the Extradition Act 2003 widened it considerably to cover driving offences and tax evasion etc.

    Jobs - the issue is that jobs would be lost as companies would not establish themselves in the UK to serve the EU market.

    Extradition - it's not so much a problem about sending UK citizens out (British govts do that willingly) but getting people back for trial.

    NATO - keeping the peace is not about waving a big stick, it's also about soft power and diplomacy. NATO gives priority to US interests and is not seen as a neutral broker. NATO is also not concerned with post-conflict reconciliation, something which the EU is doing both in the former Yugoslavia and Cyprus.

    Trade - the EU has the world's largest economy; certain states have enjoyed higher rates of GDP growth than China. Like many other countries across the world, the EU also suffered a downturn during the economic crisis. The "Shanghai Index" is about those universities which have wealthy sponsors to fund Nobel Prizewinning research, not the quality of the university itself.

    Climate change - the EU played a role at the 2012 Doha Conference and its emissions trading scheme is seen as a model.

    By :
    Patrick
    - Posted on :
    22/01/2013

  • Patrick,

    We all thought the EAW was for serious offences only. However an EAW can be issued if the alleged ‘offender’ is accused of any offence on conviction of which they can receive a penalty of at least 12 months imprisonment. (They do not have to actually receive this sentence but it must be theoretically possible.) So, as you can get a sentence of five years for theft in the UK ANY allegation of theft would allow the issuing of an EAW. But as I indicated in my earlier post the UK does tend to use the EAW only for serious offences, other EU countries have an entirely different view.

    Lord Justice Thomas the UK’s the senior extradition judge is on record stating that the EAW system is unworkable (report Sunday Times 4th November 2012). I assume as one of the most senior judges in the country he knows what he is talking about.

    As an aside, the EAW is of course only one aspect of the push to produce a Pan European criminal code which would fundamentally change the UK criminal justice system as the pressure will be to move to a continental Code Napoleon / Roman Law as opposed to Common Law. (Common Law being used by Malta, Cyprus, Ireland and UK alone.)

    We have discussed trade and jobs before. I am not an economist spending my entire working life looking at these matters. I simply read the reports of such people, a number do claim as does the author of the original article the potential for huge loss of employment. But every time I look at the source information they have used I find they have not provided the entire picture.

    In this case the NIESR say 10% of jobs in the UK are dependent on the single market, this is quoted by Sir Graham Watson. But he fails to mention that the very same report goes on to say unequivocally that the loss of jobs would actually be negligible.

    Another unfortunate tendency is to use very old data but present it as current. So for example we are regularly told 3.5m jobs would go if we left the EU. This figure originates from research commissioned by the pro EU think tank Britain in Europe in 2000 from the European Institute at South Bank University. The University used export figures from 1997 and a variable used in the calculation (import component of exports) dated from 1990! So the figure used draws its validity from factors almost a quarter of a century old!

    Of course there is also the alternative view, the Bruges Group (which of course has its own bias in just the same was as Britain in Europe did) believes leaving the EU would create a million jobs. As I say complex, but the fact remains that many very knowledgeable people do not accept leaving the EU would cause job losses.

    We were not talking about soft power, which does have its place. We were talking about oft repeated claim that the “EU…..has given Europe the longest period of uninterrupted peace it has ever known.” I would argue that the EU is a symptom of that peace rather than a cause of it. Certainly the Cold War ‘peace’ was maintained by NATO rather than the EU. But regardless of the claim does anyone believe that if the UK left the EU that would result in military conflict ?

    The Shanghai Index measures the academic ranking of universities including (but not exclusive to) the research performance of universities, this certainly does reflect on the ability of a country to remain competitive. A recent example would be the work of Geim and Novoselov into graphene (which did win the Noble Physics prize 2010). It is precisely these new advances that will provide us with the technologies we need to stay competitive and for which the EU has an extremely poor record of supporting despite the grand words.

    The point I was trying to make about the Copenhagen Conference was the failure of the EU to get the biggest polluters to accept binding targets as per the Kyoto Protocol undermines the claim that it is a big player. As you say the Doha Conference does extend the Kyoto Protocol to 2020, but it actually only covers 15% of CO2 emissions as all the countries I previously mentioned and many others are not signatories. On a personal level I would absolutely welcome cuts to CO2 production.

    By :
    I want out
    - Posted on :
    22/01/2013

  • @Iwantout

    - the EAW is unworkable compared to what? Given the alternative of a lengthy extradition process and safe havens for criminals in countries where there is no extradition agreement, the EAW is an improvement but one of course that needs more work. But again, the British situation is particular in that it's the only country whose nationals can be extradited for petty offences committed in other states.

    - jobs and trade; difficult to predict as it is very likely there would be a "big bang" effect of EU exit but rather years of adjustment and reorientation. Depending on the terms of access to the single market given to the UK, companies with significant EU trading activities could be encouraged to refocus elsewhere and either re-establish in another EU state (Ireland/France) or curtail their activities entirely. Likewise, many EU-established companies may find it cheaper to export directly into the UK from outside rather than having a UK presence. The departure of these companies would have knock on effects on the service industries which exist to support them, e.g. accountants, lawyers, secretaries, cleaners etc. Bearing this all in mind, 10% looks a rather reasonable figure. Add to it the UK expats who work in the EU and it would climb still higher.

    Perhaps the best cost/benefit analysis of EU trade is that published by the Swiss government in 1994 which runs to around 400 pages.

    By :
    Patrick
    - Posted on :
    24/01/2013

  • Patrick,

    If you look at the reference I provided you will see Lord Justice Thomas is saying the EAW is unworkable given the different judicial standards across the EU. Given his position, expertise and knowledge I think you have to lend credence to his comments.

    As I showed in my first post the UK issued UK 220 warrants in 2009, one of the lowest in the EU. The UK does only use them for serious cases (e.g. Hussain Osman 2005), the concern is the way it is used by the rest of the EU for trivial matters. But worse is the fact that regardless of the severity of the allegation is the cases can be conducted in absentia and without necessarily the knowledge of the accused until the verdict is returned. E.g. Edmond Arapi sentenced to 16 years for murder in Genoa. A city he had never visited and at the time of the offence he was in Staffordshire. Matters have reached such a level amongst those working and aware of the Criminal Justice system that organisations such as Fair Trials International have now started raising concerns about the EAW.

    With regards to jobs and trade, I agree with you it is difficult to predict. It is for that reason I believe you have to read the views of experts who don’t just accept the press releases of lobbying bodies. It is now becoming increasingly difficult to find any comments that suggest the impact of the UK leaving the EU would be as massive as was claimed years ago.

    Professor Ian Begg of the LSE (one of the authors of the South Bank University study which is constantly referred to as showing exit would lead to 3.5 million job losses) has repeatedly pointed out that the loss of jobs is likely to be negligible. Interestingly he appeared on the Channel 4 programme Fact Check 31/10/11 with regards to a cost benefit analysis of EU membership. He said such an independent cost benefit study “would probably find that the economic plus or minus is very small.” Such a view is confirmed by NIESR ( http://www.niesr.ac.uk/pdf/annual%20report/AR-2000.PDF ) Then of course there is the UK Government BIS report from 2011 saying that the impact of leaving the EU would be -0.2 to -0.3% of GDP (not allowing for the savings due to reduction of regulatory costs). Just so it doesn’t appear I only use UK sources, I would also recommend Wolfgang Munchau (a co-editor of the Deutsch FT) writing in the Financial Times “The single market has been an overhyped, but mostly disappointing programme, with no measurable impact on GDP.” (26/11/12)

    The Review of Competences will certainly provide a basis for consideration of the cost benefit of membership of the EU. I think we might all agree this is likely to be more valid than a 19 year old report for a different country when the EU itself was fundamentally different. Certainly the costs of such social legislation as the Working Time Directive (even if it was brought in via the health and safety route) will be interesting.

    You make a valid point about the British ex pat community in the EU, estimated at around 1million people. Clearly this would have to be considered in any exit from the EU, as indeed would the position of the estimated 400K French people living in the UK (BBC 30th May 2012) London is reported to be the 6th biggest French city, 800K Poles (Guardian 12/12/12), 112K Germans (ONS) etc etc.

    By :
    I want out
    - Posted on :
    25/01/2013

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