Given that Europe is not inclined to make the painful decisions that a modernized relationship requires, it is hard to understand what a return to Europe means, except for having dinner with some interesting people, writes George Friedman.
If the Remain camp wins by a tiny majority – the polls show a deadlock – then the Leave camp will not let the matter stand. It will manoeuvre for another referendum down the road, writes George Friedman.
For the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges. But this goes counter to Germany’s fundamental sense of self, and its interests, writes George Friedman.
If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to become the single centre of power in Turkey, he must crush his domestic opposition and the PKK, and with its refugee deal, the EU is helping him do that, writes George Friedman.
What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.
Coming from Nikolai Partushev, a senior Russian official, and former head of the intelligence service close to President Vladimir Putin, statements about an American plot against Russia have to be taken seriously, writes George Friedman for Geopolitical Futures.
Export-oriented Germany is the poster child for an accident waiting to happen, according to a review of countries most affected by the ongoing global economic slowdown, George Friedman writes in Geopolitical Futures.