Geopolitical Futures
Hungary, Poland, Serbia: China’s backdoors to Europe
China benefits from divisions that prevent the EU from forming a unified front against it. That is why relations with EU members Hungary and Poland, as well as with the Western Balkans and Serbia in particular, are getting stronger, writes Antonia Colibasanu.
US-Russia relations beyond Helsinki
For the US, Ukraine is important. For Russia, Ukraine is everything, writes Jacob L. Shapiro for Geopolitical Futures. Jacob L. Shapiro is the Director of Analysis for Geopolitical Futures, a global analysis company founded and led by George Friedman, an...
Azerbaijan asserts its power in the South Caucasus
A minor escalation carries an important message. Russia has reason to support Azerbaijan’s move in Nakhchivan, as its primary imperative in the South Caucasus is to prevent any country from moving too far into the Western camp, writes Xander Snyder.
Qatar: a testament of Saudi weakness
The recent diplomatic row proves that Riyadh is struggling to maintain Arab unity, writes Kamran Bokhari.
NATO’s diminishing military function
The lack of consensus at the recent NATO summit is also apparent when it comes to the alliance’s counterterrorism efforts, writes Antonia Colibasanu.
No bluffing: US preparing to attack North Korea
The United States is advertising its preparations for war. North Korea assumes the attack is inevitable, writes George Friedman.
What a US president wants and what he must do are two different things
Donald Trump may want the United States to be less involved in the world but the reality is that the US is deeply involved, writes George Friedman.
Kazakhstan changing to secure continuity
Kazakhstan and the wider region of Central Asia are on the cusp of significant change, albeit largely unrecognised by the rest of the world, writes Kamran Bokari.
Thinking about propaganda
Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead, writes Jacob L. Shapiro.
Wallonia strikes out at Canada
There are historic reasons behind the Walloon rejection of CETA, and a price to pay for post-Napoleonic Britain having engineered Belgium as a nation in gridlock, writes George Friedman.
Compromising in the Caucasus
A change in the status quo of the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would affect all regional players, writes Antonia Colibasanu.
Joy and despair in European statistics
Europe needs more than temporary growth to boost its economy, write George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu.
Nationalism, technology, and the Olympics
The Olympic Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals, writes George Friedman.
The Turkey coup looks like the most incompetent undertaking imaginable
Whatever happened on Friday 15 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged stronger than ever and can now arrest anyone he wants on charges of treason, writes George Friedman.
Decision-making and disarray in the EU
The EU’s complex bureaucracy has prevented it from dealing with crises effectively, writes Antonia Colibasanu.
Obama and the European Union
European integration was an American idea. If the European Union falls apart, it is hard to see how NATO survives, even in its current state, writes George Friedman.
France confronts Germany on defence
For the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges. But this goes counter to Germany’s fundamental sense of self, and its interests, writes George Friedman.
Erdogan’s not mad, he’s ruthless
If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to become the single centre of power in Turkey, he must crush his domestic opposition and the PKK, and with its refugee deal, the EU is helping him do that, writes George Friedman.
Fighting terrorism requires massive intrusion into society
Any successful counter to terrorism can’t be carried out by security forces. It must be carried out by intelligence services, and massive intrusion in society is needed, writes George Friedman.
Hungary, Poland and illiberal democracy
The EU’s problem is that others are following the illiberal regimes of Hungary and in Poland, and it is possible that among them be Germany, writes George Friedman.
Why Putin went into Syria
The Russians intervened in Syria in order to bail the United States out of a very difficult situation, and obtain better understanding for their interests with Ukraine, writes George Friedman.
Brexit and the ongoing saga of the EU
What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.
The EU has no leaders
The EU is an apparatus, and that is not something people can trust, writes George Friedman, comparing the US presidential election with the crisis of leadership elsewhere in the world.