China benefits from divisions that prevent the EU from forming a unified front against it. That is why relations with EU members Hungary and Poland, as well as with the Western Balkans and Serbia in particular, are getting stronger, writes Antonia Colibasanu.
Given that Europe is not inclined to make the painful decisions that a modernized relationship requires, it is hard to understand what a return to Europe means, except for having dinner with some interesting people, writes George Friedman.
For the US, Ukraine is important. For Russia, Ukraine is everything, writes Jacob L. Shapiro for Geopolitical Futures. Jacob L. Shapiro is the Director of Analysis for Geopolitical Futures, a global analysis company founded and led by George Friedman, an...
A minor escalation carries an important message. Russia has reason to support Azerbaijan’s move in Nakhchivan, as its primary imperative in the South Caucasus is to prevent any country from moving too far into the Western camp, writes Xander Snyder.
Kazakhstan and the wider region of Central Asia are on the cusp of significant change, albeit largely unrecognised by the rest of the world, writes Kamran Bokari.
There are historic reasons behind the Walloon rejection of CETA, and a price to pay for post-Napoleonic Britain having engineered Belgium as a nation in gridlock, writes George Friedman.
Whatever happened on Friday 15 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged stronger than ever and can now arrest anyone he wants on charges of treason, writes George Friedman.
European integration was an American idea. If the European Union falls apart, it is hard to see how NATO survives, even in its current state, writes George Friedman.
For the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges. But this goes counter to Germany’s fundamental sense of self, and its interests, writes George Friedman.
If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to become the single centre of power in Turkey, he must crush his domestic opposition and the PKK, and with its refugee deal, the EU is helping him do that, writes George Friedman.
Any successful counter to terrorism can’t be carried out by security forces. It must be carried out by intelligence services, and massive intrusion in society is needed, writes George Friedman.
The EU’s problem is that others are following the illiberal regimes of Hungary and in Poland, and it is possible that among them be Germany, writes George Friedman.
The Russians intervened in Syria in order to bail the United States out of a very difficult situation, and obtain better understanding for their interests with Ukraine, writes George Friedman.
What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.
The EU is an apparatus, and that is not something people can trust, writes George Friedman, comparing the US presidential election with the crisis of leadership elsewhere in the world.
