The Union on the threshold of a budgetary big bang

The Union on the threshold of a budgetary big bang

Introduction

The purpose of the seminar was not to come up with new proposals, but rather to discuss and assess the nature of existing ones, identify the forces at work and expose any hidden agendas. In fact, the discussions brought out the full scale of the issues affecting the three main chapters of the Community budget: structural policies, which account for a third of expenditure, the common agricultural policy, which amounts to approximately 40%, and the other Community policies. The discussions also exposed the constraints to which these three chapters are subject. The content of the CAP’s mid-term review was not yet known at the time of the seminar, but the main points of deadlock and compromise of the October European Council could already be surmised from the exchanges which took place between the experts. Furthermore, the seminar gave some insights into the major events awaiting the Union up to the end of 2004, and in particular those related to the impending enlargement and to institutional reform. By then, the first ten candidate countries will have joined the Union. If the European Convention submits its results on schedule and the Intergovernmental Conference makes rapid enough progress, a new framework will have been provided for the Union’s policies, the European Parliament’s powers will probably have been expanded, and the Union’s own resources might even have been increased. A new institutional and financial landscape could well be emerging when the new Commission, to be appointed a few months after the European Parliament elections, starts preparing the next “package” for the period 2007-2013.

The seminar came to a unanimous yet disturbing conclusion. The considerations that prevailed at the time of the Delors I package in 1988 are no longer valid, nor are those which governed the agreement concluded in Berlin in 1999. The boundaries within which the 2007- 2013 financial package will be negotiated are still largely unknown. Hence the speculative nature of any analysis in this area.

This independent paper was drafted just after the European Council meeting held in Copenhagen on 12 and 13 December 2002. It is largely based on the thoughts expressed during the April seminar, while including certain more recent details. Without claiming to predict what shape the overall package will eventually take with 25 or 27 players around the table, the analysis below will hopefully give a better understanding of the ins and outs of future negotiations.

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