Promoting political and economic reform in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

The EU has a major interest in the reform process of its neighbours, writes Fraser Cameron, director of studies at the European Policy Centre (EPC), in the Turkish Policy Quarterly. However, the EU is not entitled to “impose” the ground rules of political, economic and social behavior that it requires from member countries upon its southern neighbors the way it is able to upon its European neighbors and potential member countries. The EU’s “sticks and carrots” are insufficient to motivate national authorities to implement reforms that weaken their own power status. This article considers the importance of the region for the EU, assesses the achievements of the Barcelona Process, evaluates present EU policies towards the region, ask s whether democracy is possible in the region and examines the prospects for EU-U.S. cooperation in the wider Middle East. The author suggests a number of recommendations for EU action although it is recognized that progress will depend on decisions made by the countries in the region themselves.

The geopolitical situation of the Mediterranean and the Middle East has changed significantly since the Barcelona Process began in late 1995. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 and the war in Iraq have given the region a new centrality in global affairs. For the US the wider Middle East is now the most crucial area for US foreign and security policy. The EU has also agreed to give priority to its southern neighbors who had been feeling neglected as the EU was heavily involved in eastern enlargement and negotiations for a new constitution. 

The economic situation of the region has improved in recent years, thanks above all to substantially higher export revenues from oil/gas that remain the ir economic mainstay, together with tourism. But politically, nearly all Arab countries have been slipping further behind. The third Arab Human Development Report (2004) has rightly drawn attention to a long catalogue of deficiencies including lack of democracy and slow economic reforms. 

The Importance of the Region to the EU 

The Mediterranean and the Middle East (defined here as reaching from Morocco to the Gulf) is of crucial importance to the EU. It is part of the EU’s neighborhood and together with Russia its most important source of energy. The EU is the main trading partner of all countries in the region. The MED countries are sending 50 percent of their exports to the EU. Europe is the largest foreign investor of its MED neighbors (55 percent of total FDI). The EU is the largest provider of financial assistance and funding for most MED countries, with nearly 3 billion EUR per year in loans and grants. The member states of the EU provide substantial additional amounts. The EU is also the main source of tourism. It the first destination for migrants, legal and illegal, that form a sizeable diaspora (almost 10 million people altogether, mostly from the Maghreb) in France, Netherlands, Belgium and other EU member states. 

The EU is rightly concerned about the situation of its southern neighbors. European leaders worry that the south may not be able to cope with the challenges ahead (rising unemployment, social unrest, rapid urbanization, globalization, population growth, fundamentalism, water scarcity, etc). Many Europeans fear that the flood of illegal immigrants into Europe will keep growing and profoundly perturb the European labor market and society. The region’s precarious political, social and economic systems constitute a potential security threat. 

For these reasons, the EU has a major interest in the reform process of its neighbors and should be as forthcoming as possible in providing assistance. The first priority is political reform – more democracy and respect for the rule of law. Economic reform is another priority, as the southern neighbours need to create 5 million jobs a year to cope with the new entrants to their labor markets. A third priority is improving the quality of education for females as well as males, and last not least the region has to fight against rapid deterioration of the environment. 

In encouraging the reform process, the EU has to take into account a profound difference between its neighbours in Eastern Europe and those around the southern shores of the Mediterranean. The EU is entitled to “impose” upon its European neighbors – and potential member countries – the ground rules of political, economic and social behavior that it requires all member countries to respect. The EU does not have the same rights in the case of its southern neighbours. It can only encourage and play the role of facilitator. Equally the European neighbours are serious about reforms, because they all want to join the EU and therefore have no alternative but to engage in painful reforms. That has been the single most important reason for the profound transformations that have taken place in Central and Eastern Europe. Furthermore the very high educational and scientific standards in the region have also helped it to make far greater progress in socio -economic development than our southern neighbours. 

Whatever these differences, any reform process must remain the exclusive responsibility of the country concerned. Outsiders, even close neighbours, should only interfere if there is a serious violation of human rights. Even if the EU tried to “impose” reforms in the south, it would lack the power to implement them: implementation always remains the resort of the national authorities. One of the major problems is that the EU’s “sticks and carrots” are insufficient to motivate national authorities to implement reforms that weaken their own power status. 

Barcelona – an Assessment 

The tenth anniversary of the Barcelona Declaration on 28 November 2005 will be a useful occasion to take stock. The Process was ambitious. Its goal was to convert the Mediterranean Sea into a zone of peace, stability and prosperity. To that end, the EU proposed the establishment of a vast Euro-MED free trade area to be completed by 2010, a substantial increase of its development assistance, the conclusion of Association agreements with each of the neighboring countries in the MED, and the establishment of a political dialogue with all the countries around the MED, Israel included. 

Since 1995 the parties have established numerous ministerial and official bodies to oversee the process but crucially have failed to secure visibility and popular support. Not one person in a thousand in the EU and even less on the other side of the MED has any idea of what the Barcelona Process is about, though official documents remain widely optimistic. The most recent Commission Communication (April 2004) talks of a “strong partnership driven by a common political will to build together a space of dialogue, peace, security and shared prosperity. ” 

What has been achieved concretely in the past 10 years?

To read the article in full, visit the European Stability Initiative website.