Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reform

OVERVIEW

The Yugoslav Army’s arrest on 14 March 2002 of a leading Serbian politician and a U.S. diplomat signals that for the first time the Army has openly entered the political arena and is explicitly attempting to set limits on political debate and policy. Serbian politicians will cross those red lines at their peril. The nationalist, conservative and corrupt military, which as the incident demonstrates is at least substantially beyond civilian control, seems intent on protecting important elements of the Milosevic legacy and is apparently now prepared to intervene more openly to influence negatively a broad range of policies, including the domestic reform agenda, cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and relations with neighbouring countries. That Serbia is struggling to decide whether its course is toward the European mainstream or the reactionary polity of a Belarus should be of great concern to the international community.

A new briefing paper from the International Crisis Group, Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reform analyses the implications of the arrests which saw Serbian Vice-President Momcilo Perisic held for two days and U.S. diplomat John Neighbour held for fifteen hours. Perisic, a former Chief of the General Staff, was accused of passing secret information. He has resigned from the government and parliament but his guilt or innocence has been overshadowed by concerns about the lack of political control over those who ordered and carried out the arrests.

The incident took place a few hours after the signing of an EU-brokered agreement on future relations between Serbia and Montenegro which also could affect the budget of the army, and seventeen days before the deadline for U.S. certification of compliance for receipt of further bilateral aid. Cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague is a key U.S. demand and the Serbian government had began preparing the public for another round of arrests. Among the names most frequently mentioned were several former army officers.

ICG Serbia analyst James Lyon said: “This open entry of the VJ (Yugoslav Army) into the political arena is a clear and new threat to Serbia’s democratic transition and reform process. It has important implications for the Serbia-Montenegro agreement, cooperation with The Hague Tribunal, the direction and pace of economic, legal and social reform and Serbia’s relations with its neighbours.”

Reaction to the Perisic incident also shows that reform still lacks a strong domestic constituency. An anti-Western, isolationist bloc – comprised of numerous factions of nationalists and old Milosevic loyalists – has gathered loosely around FRY President Vojslav Kostunica. A number of them – including senior army figures – have close ties to Milosevic. Their views still command considerable popular support.

James Lyon said: “The popular mood has been soured by the pain of economic reforms and the lack of foreign investment. The prosecution’s poor performance and Milosevic’s vigorous defence in The Hague have restored some of the former dictator’s standing. Serbia is struggling to decide whether to follow Croatia’s course toward the European mainstream or the reactionary polity of a Belarus. The outcome of this internal struggle should be of great concern to the international community.”

For more in-depth analysis, see the full report on the

ICG website.