US CO2 cap ‘inevitable’, says Washington climate expert

Eileen Claussen of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in Washington spoke to EURACTIV about climate change and what can be expected from the US at Bali and in the coming years. Meanwhile, the US Bali delegation has found itself increasingly isolated following Australia’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.

• 2008 Presidential election

Timing will play an important role in any future US involvement in a global climate regime, says Eileen Claussen. Considering that a new US administration, to be elected in 2008, will not take office until the beginning or middle of the following year, “the US will probably have a cap-and-trade system passed through legislation by mid-2009”, she said. 

But Claussen does not expect the current Bush administration to make any major concessions in the meantime. 

“The challenge then is to get a [negotiation] mandate or a decision that lets them not try to get what they want, which is not acceptable, and not preclude anything that another administration (but not starting until 2009) would be able to negotiate from”, she said. 

Claussen also made a clear distinction between the US government and the Bush administration, and pointed to significant efforts towards an effective US carbon regime at state and Congressional level, including 140 Congressional hearings on climate change since January 2007. 

“There has been an enormous amount of activity at the state level. There are now three groups of states working on cap-and-trade systems: one in the Northeastern/Mid-Atlantic, one in the West and one that was recently announced in the Midwest. They will eventually get a large proportion of US emissions working on cap-and-trade systems”, she said.

• Winds of change?

Despite concerns that the US will block progress in Bali, some positive signals have emerged from comments made by the US delegation yesterday (3 December).

“We’re not here to be a roadblock,” said Harlan Watson, leader of the US delegation during the Bali talks. “The United States intends to be flexible and work constructively on a Bali roadmap,” he said.

Watson even stated that the US remains open to binding emissions targets, according to Reuters. The EU favours binding targets and is hoping for US backing in order to negotiate “fair and effective” contributions from developing states (EURACTIV 03/12/07). 

But one Council official close to the negotiations told EURACTIV that while the long term stance of the US is crucial, Washington may play only a secondary role during the Bali talks, adopting a ‘flexible’ position while waiting for signals from developing states, notably China and India. 

Thus the success of the negotiations will hinge on the willingness of developing states to contribute to a global carbon regime, according to the official.  

India in particular has expressed strong opposition to emissions restrictions that could slow its economic growth. If India blocks progress, the EU’s concern is that the Bush administration will be able to ‘hide’ behind India and also block any binding CO2 reduction targets.

Claussen, however, notes that during a ‘major emitters’ meeting in Washington in September 2007, an attempt by the US to isolate the EU on the issue of binding emissions targets failed, when “everyone agreed that at least the developed countries should have binding commitments”, she said. 

• Australia saves the day?

The decision by Australia’s new government under recently elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to ratify the Kyoto Protocol was welcomed with a one minute standing ovation by the delegates at Bali on 3 December.

Australia’s move isolates the US as the only nation to not have ratified Kyoto, leading to speculation that Washington is now under increased pressure to sign onto a future climate deal.

To read the full interview with Eileen Claussen, please click here.

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