A different transatlantic relationship after 2 November?

US presidential elections: EURACTIV has compiled a list of
websites to help readers follow the election’s
results. Some observers say the candidates’ tone might
differ but foreign policy will not change so much in
substance.

Americans go to the polls on 2 November to elect the
new US president and some members of the Congress. Since
the president and vice president are selected by
winner-take-all electoral college votes in each state,
and not by the national popular vote, candidates focus on
winning strategic state contests. The small number of
undecided or ‘swing’ voters will be key to the
election’s outcome.  

Polls indicate that American voters support the two
major presidential candidates in nearly equal numbers.
According to the latest Reuters/Zogby poll released on 28
October, President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry
by two points nationally and has gained a slight edge on
Kerry in the key state of Michigan. Bush led in five of
the ten battleground states being polled – Florida,
Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada – with Kerry
ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The key
state of Pennsylvania, a must-win for Kerry, was
tied.

Opinion polls across the globe reflect deep discontent
with the current White House occupant. But Moisés
Naím, editor of Foreign Policy says this
election holds “a paradox that the candidates alike
are reluctant to recognize: If reelected, Bush will have
difficulty sustaining the foreign policies of his first
term, whereas a first-term Kerry presidency is bound to
emulate some of Bush’s more aggressive
positions”. A US official confirmed that Kerry’s
election would certainly mean a change of tone but
content of policies might not differ
widely. 

In any case, the elected candidate will need the
support of the Congress to implement his political
programme and recent polls indicate that republicans are
likely to retain control of the US House of
Representatives.

The main issues to be dealt with by the new US
administration and the new EU Commission, once
they are in place, are:

• the transatlantic aviation deal
• the trade conflict about subsidies to Airbus and
  Boeing
• the strengthening of borders and transportation
  security (a high level policy dialogue will take place
  between the Commission’s director-general for
  Justice and Home Affairs Jonathan Faull and US Under
  secretary for Border and transportation security on 22
  November
• co-operation on Sudan and preparations of the
  elections in Irak

Read more with Euractiv

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