German elections: implications for EU policymaking

The Bundestag elections are likely to lead to a new government in the EU’s biggest member state. EURACTIV has asked political analysts to paint a picture of future policy-making and its implications for Europe.

Overall, experts predict that a new German government would continue with the country’s basically pro-European stance. If anything, Angela Merkel would be less aggressive in reviewing Germany’s status as net contributor to the EU budget than current chancellor Mr Schröder. “There will not be a reform of the budgetary contributions under a new government,” said Werner Becker, Europe analyst of German think tank DB Research. “Moreover, the 2002 CAP agreement with France will not be revisited, as this is considered an essential part of Franco-German relations.”

Franco-German engine

There is uncertainty about the future development of the ‘Franco-German engine’ for European integration under a new government. Although there have been fears that Mrs Merkel’s closer relationship with the US will lead to a cooling its traditional friendship with France, analysts do not expect this shift to be dramatic. “The close co-operation with France and the deepening of European integration is part of the fundamental and uncontroversial principles of German foreign policy. This does not rule out nuances in style, but the key to the Franco-German role in Europe is not a perfect harmony of attitudes, but the political will and the ability to reach constructive compromises that will drive forward Europe,” said Henrik Uterwedde, deputy director of the Franco-German Institute.

Others think that the Franco-German relationship will be complemented by close contacts with smaller countries, especially BeNeLux, Poland, Hungary and Scandinavia. “Former chancellor Kohl always made sure that the smaller member states were involved in the Franco-German discussions, but Mr Schröder has neglected this,” said Becker. “A revival of this strategy will substantially improve the atmosphere in Europe at a time when the pieces need to be picked up after the French and Dutch Constitution rejections.” 

Enlargement

Concerning future enlargements of the EU, a new government is likely to stick to the agreements with Bulgaria and Romania and accept the state of negotiations with Turkey. However, it is commonly known that Mrs Merkel prefers a ‘privileged partnership’ with Turkey instead of a full membership. “The German line of a close partnership with Turkey is shared by a majority of member states and it will ultimately prevail,” said Heinz Kramer from the Foundation for Science and Policy (SWP). “Even if the negotiations are to be started on 3 October, the prospects for a successful conclusion of the Turkish accession process are dire.” 

Stability and Growth Pact

Experts predict that the financial constraints imposed by the sluggish German economy will be too strong to seriously consider getting under the 3% deficit ceiling of the Stability and Growth Pact. “The CDU’s philosophy on budget deficit will be stricter than the current government’s, but there will not be any room for manoeuvre for at least two years,” said DB Research’s Becker.

Competitiveness and Lisbon agenda

There will, however, be a major shift in Germany’s efforts to get the Lisbon agenda back on track, thinks Becker. “Some areas like the liberalisation of services will be tackled in a much more aggressive way,” he predicts. Moreover, a new conservative government is expected to be more business-oriented and more inclined to implement a series of key reforms. “Labour market reforms started by the Schröder government will be advanced further. As Germany has always had a role model function for the whole EU, we can hope that the reform wave will spill over to other countries,” he adds. If, however, the outcome of the elections is a Grand Coalition, the outlook for reforms in Germany is rather gloomy, as the coalition partners CDU and SPD would have completely opposite views on key areas such as labour market policy, health policy and pensions.

Energy & environment

The strong reliance on free market forces advocated by the CDU could have serious implications for the energy and environmental policy of a new German government. “There will be a fundamental shift towards more liberalisation in many areas,” predicts Markus Duscha from the Institute for Energy and Environment (IFEU). “I doubt that the current framework is strong enough to maintain the necessary environmental directions or even drive them forward, which would be necessary. In environmental policy, a shareholder value mentality is too short sighted. What we need is long-term aims and solutions.”

In principle, the CDU has promised to further promote renewable energies. Under the SPD/Green government, renewables have taken off substantially, providing one of the driving factors behind the European growth of the industry. However, Mrs Merkel has also announced a delay in the nuclear power phase-out, which could have implications for the future of renewables. Moreover, the liberal FDP, a potential coalition partner, has argued for a free market approach to energy questions. “This would be too early for renewables,” said Duscha. At the moment, renewable energies still rely on special conditions to compete in a market dominated by fossil fuels and nuclear.

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