Interview: Obama protectionism mere ‘election talk’

Barack Obama is unlikely to convert his protectionist rhetoric into concrete policies if he wins US presidential elections on 4 November, John Glenn of the German Marshall Fund told EURACTIV in an interview.

“It would be a mistake to see him [Obama] as a traditional Democrat who is simply driven by the trade unions,” Glenn said, dismissing Obama’s comments about renegotiating NAFTA, the North American free trade pact with Canada and Mexico, as election talk aimed at warming the Democratic soul. 

He points out that Democratic presidential candidates in the US have a long tradition of speaking out in favour of more protectionism, but it was in fact Democrat Bill Clinton who in 1993 signed NAFTA during his first year in office.

Getting transatlantic relations back on track

While Europeans tend to favour Obama, Glenn pointed to the danger that “there could be articifially high expectations,” adding that McCain might be better suited to getting transatlantic relations back on track. 

“John McCain has a much longer history and track record in working with Europe, understanding Europe and knowing European leaders than does Obama.”

Heading for a transatlantic clash on financial regulation?

Asked about the different approaches of Obama and John McCain to addressing the current financial crisis, Glenn expects that “it will be easier for a President Obama to talk about regulation and the way in which the financial markets will go forward” given the Republican’s traditional aversion towards any form of regulation. 

However, the scholar rules out the possibility of either candidate talking about the end of the old order of capitalism as French President Nicolas Sarkozy alluded to in a speech to the European Parliament earlier this month (EURACTIV 22/10/08). 

“I would like to say that for both candidates, this is not the end of capitalism, this is not nationalisation of banks. It is a substantial government intervention in an economic crisis. In the US, I cannot imagine either candidate talking about the end of capitalism,” Glenn said. 

No tough line on Russia

Glenn also does not expect big differences in future US policy towards Russia should the next president be Obama or McCain, dismissing McCain’s tough talk on the former Cold War enemy as “part of the election campaign”. Following the Georgia war, Mc Cain had called for Russia to be banned from the G8 group of the world’s leading economies. 

“McCain’s style would certainly be different in style from Obama, but I am not sure that it will be different in practice,” Glenn pointed out, adding that “for better or for worse, America relies on Russia on fundamental areas for dealing with the major issues” such as Iran’s nuclear proliferation. 

“Our relationship with Russia is too complex to be approached from a one-dimensional perspective. I think that that will be true for both of them.” 

Europe wants Obama 

Asked about Europe’s expectations of the new American president, Glenn said Obama was likely to be received in a warmer fashion than his Republican rival McCain, who “unfairly or not” had been closely associated with the policies of the current Bush administration, particularly in Iraq.

“There is a hunger for change in Europe,” Glenn stated. But he added that “any new face in the White House will have an opportunity to restore America’s credibility abroad”.

To read the interview in full, please click here.

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