Macron stirs German campaign with pre-poll invites to Scholz, Laschet

German vice Chancellor and Social Democratic Party (SPD) top candidate for the federal elections Olaf Scholz waves toward journalists as he leaves the Elysée Palace following his meeting with French President Macron in Paris, France, 06 September 2021. [EPA-EFE/YOAN VALAT]

By hosting two contenders to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor this week, President Emmanuel Macron has shown how anxiously France is eyeing the outcome of Germany’s election and its effect on a partnership crucial to Europe’s future.

Macron held talks on Monday with German Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the left-wing SPD, who is ahead in the polls, and on Wednesday met Armin Laschet of Merkel’s conservative CDU party who is lagging after a campaign marred by gaffes.

While the Elysée talks are held behind closed doors with no joint statements to the press, the choreography and timing of both meetings have sparked intense speculation in Germany over who Paris may be backing or predicting to win.

Macron hosted Scholz a full two days before meeting Merkel’s anointed successor Laschet, while he is holding no meeting at all with the Greens contender Annalena Baerbock, who at one stage was seen as a possible future chancellor.

“The visits to Paris give the German electoral campaign an unusually European dimension,” said the Die Welt daily.

“The fact that Scholz was the first to be received by Macron may only be by chance, even if the readers of political tea leaves may see it as a secret sign of preference.”

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The German Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have sunk below 20% approval among voters for the first time in Germany’s postwar history, according to a Forsa poll published on Tuesday. The Social Democrats (SPD), led by the vice-chancellor and finance minister, Olaf Scholz, are …

‘Room for manoeuvre’

The timing of the election and arrival of the new chancellor – possibly only after months of bargaining to form a coalition – is critical for Macron, who will be eager to get down to work with the new leader as Paris takes on the EU presidency in January 2022.

Macron, likely to be seen as the most powerful politician in the EU after the departure of Merkel, wants to use the presidency to push an ambitious economic agenda and his doctrine of strategic autonomy to make Europe less reliant on the United States.

This has become all the more acute following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, with the abrupt US pullout from the country creating a vacuum that Europe is powerless to fill.

“Macron wants to sound out the potential winners to see what room he has for manoeuvre to set out the French programme for the EU presidency,” said Helene Miard-Lacroix, a specialist on Franco-German relations at the Sorbonne university in Paris.

After his talks with Macron, Scholz singled out France as Germany’s key partner in strengthening European sovereignty in a changing world. “Together with France, we must ensure that Europe now treads this path to sovereignty for our future.”

While Macron has enjoyed cordial relations with Merkel, there have on occasions been tensions over German budgetary rigidity and Paris is hoping for a more flexible approach if Scholz wins the race.

France’s Le Monde daily said Scholz had signalled to Paris “that he wants to do as chancellor what he was not able to do as vice chancellor”.

Speaking after his meeting with Macron on Wednesday, Laschet called for Europe to boost its joint intelligence gathering, saying the continent needed a “European FBI”.

The absence of the Greens candidate Baerbock from the guest list is striking although a French presidential official, who asked not to be named, said this was simply because she had not requested a meeting.

Boosted by surge in polls, Germany's Scholz bets on coalition with Greens

Germany’s centre-left chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz wants to lead Europe’s largest economy in a coalition government with the left-leaning Greens, though polls suggest he would need the support of a third party to reach a stable majority in parliament.

‘Fit to be chancellor’

Hosting election candidates for talks ahead of a poll is part and parcel of diplomatic protocol.

But such meetings do also serve to send clear signals – in the run up to France’s 2017 polls Merkel met both right-wing candidate Francois Fillon and centrist Macron but not far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

In 2012, Merkel did not meet the Socialist François Hollande, who went on to win the presidency, instead throwing her support behind his rival Nicolas Sarkozy.

But such is Macron’s stature on the European stage that German politicians are aware that a photo opportunity with him can do their aspirations no harm.

“Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet are both aware that a trip to France – Germany’s most important partner in the EU – cannot hurt during the election campaign,” said Der Tagesspiegel.

“An appearance alongside French President Emmanuel Macron can show you are fit to be chancellor”.

German election 2021: Key numbers, forecasts and projections

In Europe’s key election this year, Germany chooses a new parliament – and Angela Merkel’s successor – on 26 September. Who will get to lead the continent’s biggest economy? Will the Greens with Annalena Baerbock have the edge over Armin Laschet’s conservative CDU/CSU? Or will the Social Democrat SPD be the dark horse of these polls?

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