No improvement in EU-US ties under McCain, say Europeans

Europeans are convinced that relations with the US can only improve if Barack Obama is elected as the next US President on 4 November, while they expect no changes if Americans choose John McCain as their next leader, a new survey reveals.

47% of Europeans believe that transatlantic relations would improve under a President Obama, while only 11% expect that to be the case under a McCain presidency, according to the new ‘Transatlantic Trends’ survey presented today (10 September). Americans largely share this view, with 40% expecting improved transatlantic ties under Obama and 52% expecting more of the same under McCain.

Europeans’ high expectations of Obama stem from his huge popularity throughout the continent. 69% view him favourably. His most positive ratings are to be found in France, the Netherlands (both 85%) and Germany (83%), where in July more than 200,000 people gathered in Berlin near the historic Brandenburg Gate to follow his public speech (EURACTIV 25/07/08). 

But Obama will have to work hard if he is to emerge victorious in the US, with the most recent opinion showing McCain slightly in the lead for the first time. 

While the survey shows that Europeans continue to resist American global leadership (only 36% in favour), it also reveals that they want relations with the world’s only remaining superpower to become closer whoever gets elected (up four percentage points compared to 2006). 

57% of Europeans and 67% of Americans agreed that both sides share enough common values to cooperate. Moreover, Americans and Europeans largely share the same concerns, including fears over energy supplies and a major economic downturn. 

Both sides are also increasingly concerned about Russia, criticising the weakening of democracy there (58% of Europeans and 70% of Americans) and its behaviour towards its neighbours (58% and 69%). Another key source of concern for both Americans (61%) and Europeans (64%) is Russia’s role as an energy supplier. Numbers would likey be higher today, as the survey was conducted before the war broke out between Georgia and Russia over the status of the Georgian breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkazia (EURACTIV 09/09/08). 

The EU currently depends on Russia for 30% of its oil and 50% of its gas imports, according to Commission figures (EURACTIV 01/09/08).

The survey was carried out by TNS Opinion on the basis of telephone and face-to-face interviews with about 1,000 people aged 18 and above in 11 EU countries, Turkey and the US from 4-24 June. 

Read more with Euractiv

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