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Ukraine to hold watershed elections

Est. 4min

24-03-2006 (updated: 04-06-2012 )

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With the memory of the Orange Revolution slowly fading away, Ukrainians will on 26 March hold parliamentary elections to decide whether the country should turn toward Europe or Russia.

The contenders 


  • Party of Regions (PR)
     
    Created in 2001 and led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the party has a strong potential voter base in the east and south-east of Ukraine. In the wake of the 2004 presidential elections, which resulted in Yanukovich’s defeat, the party won over the bulk of the supporters of the communist party in eastern Ukraine. The Party of Regions has been campaigning to make Russian an official state language and in general it seeks to forge stronger ties with Moscow. It opposes Ukraine’s ambitions for NATO membership and does not support the reforms needed for the country to join the World Trade Organisation. If elected, Yanukovich promises double-digit GDP growth for the country and he claims to promote businesses and job creation. In its top echelons, the party brings together politicians who would favour the restoration of an authoritarian regime and other leaders who are open to European integration and would press for stability and economic prosperity. Currently, the Party of Regions is leading the opinion polls, expected to win around 30% of the vote. According to local press reports, the party’s leading candidate for the post of prime minister is tycoon Rynat Akhmetov, the country’s richest man. Allegations abound in Ukraine about Akhmetov’s involvement with the country’s organised crime, although he has never been convicted or charged with a crime. 

  • People’s Union Our Ukraine (NSNU) 

    The successor of the Bloc Our Ukraine electoral alliance, the NSNU was formally launched in March 2005. The party is led by President Viktor Yushchenko, and its top candidate for the post of prime minister is former premier Yuri Yekhanurov. NSNU champions a Western-leaning platform that advocates free market economics and European integration. The party’s main power base is in the western part of Ukraine. NSNU faces a double challenge: besides the Party of Regions of former rival Yanukovich, Our Ukraine will also have to measure itself against the party of Yushchenko’s former revolution partner, Yulia Tymoshenko. A recent poll showed 17.1% support for NSNU and 16.9% for the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. Accordingly, NSNU may end up being the third largest party in parliament. 


  • Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) 

    Following her conflict with her revolutionary partner Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko pulled out from the shadow of the Orange Revolution and set up this party. Tymoshenko’s candidacy by and large hurts rather than helps the NSNU’s chances. Yulia Tymoshenko is a charismatic populist who has repeatedly accused Yushchenko of co-operating with the country’s ‘oligarchs’ and allowing corruption. She has also flatly rejected the idea of entering into an eventual grand coalition with the other two major parties. In turn, NSNU’s Yekhanurov has accused Tymoshenko of opportunism and said that “I am a professional economist, and it is not easy for me to work with people who have no principles.”  

Economy

Ukraine’s economy has had to endure a series of major blows in recent years. After the turmoil of the Orange Revolution, economic growth shrunk from 12.1% in 2004 to 2.6% in 2005. A major role in this decline was played by the sudden 30% drop in the world market prices for steel and metals – Ukraine’s key export items. The row with Moscow over natural gas prices and supplies – and the ensuing 100% price hike – presented an additional blow. Through this and other moves, Moscow has shown that it will indeed go far to keep Ukraine under its control. Meanwhile, the volume of foreign investment is up (6.6 billion euros in 2005) thanks mostly to a major privatisation deal involving Mittal Steel and a huge local steel plant. 

Corruption

One major argument cited against the Orange Revolution is that it has expanded rather than eliminated the pool of corrupt tycoons with active ties to power. 

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Positions

President Yushchenko has pledged that the 26 March vote will be independent Ukraine's most democratic election ever and warned that his government will crack down on any violators. 

Asked in a press interview whether Ukrainian-Russian relations would change after the parliamentary elections, President Yushchenko said that “I am sure they will. We must do everything to activate our trade and economic cooperation. I think we should jointly carry out more humanitarian projects in order to leave all these perception stereotypes and myths in the past.” 

In an opinion article, Yulia Tymoshenko  wrote, “Some say we should not worry, that democracy and the market are now too well established in Ukraine to be replaced; that reform is irreversible and that the country’s ruling oligarchic clans, like those of Eastern Europe, will in time become law-abiding capitalists. Alas, this view is based more on wishful-thinking than on reality.” 

“The post-Communist era is over. The authoritarian era is done. Divided power, multiple interests, snarky (sic) media, powerful lobbies, intrusive civic organizations and individual ambitions rule. And that means the Orange Revolution has triumphed and that Ukraine is now much like the democratic world that views and misunderstands it from afar,” said Adrian Karatnycky, president of the New York-based Orange Circle, in the Kyiv Post. 

“Romanticism is over in Ukraine,” commented Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. “The time of the Orange Revolution, with its protesting emotions and the black-and-white confrontation between the forces of good and evil, has been replaced by a time of pragmatic political deals.” 

The Commission has said that it will monitor Ukraine’s upcoming vote and had no doubts this election would be fair and democratic. 

Background

On 26 March, Ukrainians will hold the country’s first parliamentary elections since the Orange Revolution of 2004. A total of 47 parties will be vying for the 450 seats in parliament (Verkhovna Rada), but a maximum of 6-8 parties stand a real chance of qualifying. 

Under the country’s new election law that was approved in October 2004, the new members of parliament will be elected for five-year terms (previously four years) and they will also be obliged to stay on their party ticket throughout their term. The threshold for parliamentary representation is now set at 3% of the vote. On 26 March, voters will also cast ballots in regional, municipal, district and local elections. Despite the logistical complexities this entails, the election law prescribes that the results should be released within five days of the polling day. 

The country’s new parliament will have to deal with a series of new constitutional amendments that entered into force in January 2006. It will fall on the deputies to nominate and approve the country’s new prime minister and the cabinet ministers and to create a majority coalition. From now on, the prime minister will be answerable to both the president and the parliament. 

Should the parliament fail to conclude a majority coalition deal within 30 days after its opening session, the president has the right to disband the body and call new elections. 

At stake in the elections is whether Ukraine speeds up its efforts toward European integration or moves instead to a closer relationship with Russia. President Yushchenko has repeatedly pledged to steer the country towards EU membership. Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk has said that Ukraine may become a member of the EU by 2015. The EU, meanwhile, has granted market economy status to the country, launched talks on easing visa restrictions and promised to sign a free trade agreement once Kiev joins the World Trade Organisation - but has steered clear of holding out the prospect of membership to Kiev.

Some 400 international observers will monitor the vote on 26 March and 76,000 police will be guarding the country's 34,000 polling stations.

Further Reading

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