Von der Leyen faces delicate balancing act to indulge EU leaders

Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to re-run for the EU Commission presidency has prompted some positive reactions in several EU capitals, but her quest to secure enough support from governments may prove to be a little more challenging.

Countries with centre-right governments, such as Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia and Finland, openly hailed von der Leyen’s decision.

Centre-right Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk announced on Monday evening that they nominated VDL to re-run, confirming a previous report by Euractiv in January.

Tusk, Mitsotakis possible ‘EPP drivers’ of von der Leyen’s EU campaign

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – Europe’s largest political party – is gearing up to support Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second mandate as European Commission President.

Von der Leyen will also find an ally in Bulgaria, where the political deal in the ruling coalition suggests that Maria Gabriel, also a member of the EPP, will be elected prime minister in March, replacing the incumbent, Nikolay Denkov.

Gabriel said on Monday that von der Leyen is a proven leader with a track record of tackling the challenges encountered by the EU.

According to an EPP source close to the matter, her decision enjoys the support of the vast majority of EU leaders, as it reflects the needs of the times.

“In times of turmoil and uncertain balances, von der Leyen represents stability and continuation”, the EPP source told Euractiv.

But for von der Leyen to get the post, she will need the support of antagonistic political forces, too.

Walking a tightrope

On the way to the elections, the presidential hopeful will have to walk a tightrope between those who are frustrated with the Green Deal and push for a more “pragmatic” approach – including her own party – and those who insist that the Green Deal must go on “with a red heart,” such as the EU socialists and the Greens.

In addition, she has to face the liberals’ anger over increased bureaucracy for EU businesses.

Parts of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU have been critical of VDL’s involvement in the Green Deal, as they feel it has weakened the economy and increased red tape.

Von der Leyen has complicated relationship with Germany en route to second mandate

In her own country, the European Commission president’s green push has made her more popular with political opponents than her own conservative CDU. The tricky relationship reinforces pressure for her to campaign against her own record.

Bulgarian MEP Radan Kanev (Democratic Bulgaria, EPP) described VDL as one of the “strongest presidents of the Commission” but pointed out that she carries “heavy political baggage” with the Green Deal, which was passed under the leadership of socialist Dutchman Frans Timmermans.

“She is in a very difficult position in front of the EPP and the pro-market political forces in Europe, which are on the rise,” said Kanev.

“The main problem for VDL is how she will play the political issues of the Green Deal, how she will shake off the legacy of Timmermans to be elected for a second term. The rest of her priorities will be accepted even by the Left. The right-wing expectations for the Green Deal are very different,” Kanev noted.

But the EPP source clarified that VDL’s second term will be ambitious, politically pragmatic, and results-oriented.

“There can be no room for liberal or partisan dogmatism in the next institution cycle. We love the Green Deal, but it has to go hand-in-hand with the growth”, the source noted.

“Europe is facing a declining industrial base and ageing workforce […] Ursula von der Leyen will seek rapid action in this”, the EPP source added.

Von der Leyen's mammoth task: Make the centre hold

As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launches her bid for a second five-year term, she is likely to face a balancing act of keeping EU unity and the far-right at bay.

The question of France and liberals

The biggest liberal faction within Renew Europe, ALDE, attacked the “EPP-led Commission” for creating bureaucracy in the first sentence of their manifesto. Alongside its peers in Renew, they are expected to play a kingmaker’s role in forming a pro-EU coalition.

And it seems that they will play this card after the elections.

Valérie Hayer, president of Renew Europe group, said this Commission has been successful, and EU liberals are proud of the work they have done with their partners.

“However, there is still a lot to do between now and the end of the mandate. There will be no chance of getting a pro-European majority in Parliament without us next term”, she told Euractiv, adding that the liberals’ proposals must be reflected in the next Commission programme.

“We urge the EPP candidate to resist the temptation to swing to the populist right. The EU is stronger when it is led from the centre,”

Hayer said, urging VDL to stop delaying an initiative granting full legislative powers to the EU Parliament

The Elysée and the French foreign ministry did not reply to Euractiv’s request for comment.

A senior European government official told Euractiv that larger member states, in general, were content with VDL’s first mandate and are expected to back her up.

“There are, however, concerns that she is perhaps running the Commission too much like a one-woman show, with her making too many unilateral decisions and not coordinating enough with the member states. An example of that was her snap trip to Israel after the 7 October attacks”, the official said.

Paris had reacted strongly to the trip, saying she had no mandate to take initiative on foreign matters.

But VDL may have more trouble with the liberals at home.

Moritz Körner, a member of the FDP leadership board and an MEP, told Euractiv on Monday: “The FDP has already made it very clear in its election campaign and its conference that we are not satisfied with Mrs von der Leyen’s record in her first five years.”

“The president had so far neglected” the economy and security, Körner added.

Meanwhile, a Renew Europe source in Prague told Euractiv that the liberals are also frustrated with handling Hungary’s rule of law case.

For his part, Czech EU Affairs Minister Martin Dvořák (STAN) – not affiliated with any European political family, but likely to join Renew after the EU elections – is open to a second von der Leyen mandate as well as to a change.

“VDL has demonstrated […] her ability to manage the EU effectively in challenging times. I have no objection to her continuing in this role. I am, of course, open to the possibility of a change should a candidate with a compelling vision emerge”.

But he insisted that the next leadership should be geared towards greater “efficiency, reducing bureaucracy and promoting competitiveness”.

Meloni’s hot seat

VDL will also seek the backing of conservative Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (ECR), who leads a coalition government with centre-right Forza Italia (EPP) and far-right Lega (ID).

Forza Italia is in favour, but Lega is against. Meloni, who sits in the EU Council, is in a sensitive position as she also leads the ECR, which deals with the fury of the Polish PiS over von der Leyen.

Many in Rome suggest that if Meloni goes for von der Leyen, she risks splitting the ECR.

ECR co-chair in the EU Parliament and Fratelli d’Italia member Nicola Procaccini recently told Euractiv that, “Even if the indication were on Ursula von der Leyen [for the Commission], it would be with completely different political conditions from 2019 and therefore more favourable to Italy and the positions of our government”.

Meloni, von der Leyen walk tightrope ahead of EU elections

EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will visit Italy again this weekend for an Italy-Africa summit, just a few weeks after her trip to flood-hit Forlì in Emilia-Romagna together with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Many in Rome estimate that Meloni will back von der Leyen as the PiS did in 2019 to be able to push for a Commissioner in the next executive.

The socialist camp

The EU socialists, who have nominated Nicolas Schmit as the lead candidate for the EU elections and will seek a top EU job, keep their cards close to their chest.

Their manifesto insists on the green transition and object to any ‘pause’.

In Berlin, the SPD-driven government has not made any statement, though Christian Petry, the SPD’s lead MP on European affairs, commented that von der Leyen did a decent job when she stuck to the EU Parliament agenda.

After the elections, von der Leyen could rely on Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who already backed her second mandate last July.

For Ignacio Molina, a senior researcher at the ElCano Royal Institute, one of Spain’s most prestigious think tanks, VDL and Sánchez “need each other”.

VDL’s second term would mean that a European coalition of moderate forces will be repeated against the rise of anti-EU far-right, Molina told Euractiv’s partner EFE in an interview.

“A European People’s Party (EPP) different from the Spanish PP is good for Sánchez from a national electoral point of view because the EPP is reluctant to make a pact with the ‘ultras’ and Eurosceptic forces. The EPP maintains a good dialogue with the centre-left pro-European forces,” he said.

(Sarantis Michalopoulos, Nick Alipour, Aneta Zachová, Paul Messad, Clara Bauer-Babef, Fernando Heller, Krassen Nikolov)

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