Legislative elections in Turkey: what to expect

On 22 July 2007, Turkish voters will renew the 550 members of the Grand National Assembly, the only chamber of Parliament. A Robert Schuman Foundation paper reviews the main issues in the general election – coming four months early following Parliament’s failure to elect a successor to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer.

The favourite is the Justice and Development party (AKP), led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who insists on the need to win two thirds of the seats in the Grand National Assembly. According to the paper, the remaining doubts are the extent of the victory, and the number of parties that will win seats in Parliament. The outcome of these legislative elections will influence the forthcoming election of the next head of state – by indirect suffrage.

The Justice and Development Party’s campaign is centred on the need for stability in Turkey, arguing that this is only possible under a government built around one single political party. Its objectives include boosting relations with neighbouring states, enhancing the country’s regional position, turning Turkey into a world player, undertaking active diplomacy in the Cypriot conflict and continuing negotiations to take Turkey towards membership of the EU. 

The Prime Minister, in office for the past five years, is relying on his social and economic results for these general elections. The excellent economic results in the first quarter of 2007 can only help support the government, states the paper. The AKP has received the support of the spiritual leader of the Armenians in Turkey – who considers the Justice and Development party to be the most moderate and least nationalist – and Christian communities in Turkey, which used to support the People’s Republican Party but now accuse it of being nationalist, notes the author. 

According to the paper, the opposition is very fragmented. The People’s Republican Party, a centre-left party, is running a campaign centred on education, healthcare and prosperity; The Just Way Party (DP) is a centre-right party and promises a constitutional review in order to ensure better rights for civil society, judicial independence and press freedom. The paper also mentions the Mother Country Party (ANTAVAN) – a centre-right party – and the National Action Party (MHP), an extremely nationalist movement led by Devlet Baceli. 

Accession to the EU has not really been addressed during the electoral campaign, notes the paper. However, attacks by the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in the south-east of the country are in the news, and popular demonstrations against the violence have revealed slogans at many rallies accusing the Justice and Development party of working with the Kurdish Workers’ Party, notes the paper.