German election 2021: Key numbers, forecasts and projections

German's incumbent parties continue to be haunted by the xoal exit date they set just one year ago, as the circumstances change rapidly.

In Europe’s key election this year, Germany chooses a new parliament – and Angela Merkel’s successor – on 26 September. Who will get to lead the continent’s biggest economy? Will the Greens with Annalena Baerbock have the edge over Armin Laschet’s conservative CDU/CSU? Or will the Social Democrat SPD be the dark horse of these polls?

EURACTIV, in partnership with Europe Elects, provides all the nitty-gritty of numbers, forecasts, and projections, updated twice a week.


Polling average

Seat projections

Probability of coalitions

Preferred pick for Chancellor

**German voters do not directly elect the Chancellor, who is the head of the government. The new parliament must convene for the first time no later than one month after the vote.

Subscribe to our newsletters

Subscribe