LEAK: Brussels eyes 90% climate goal for 2040, 11 EU countries call for ambition

The European Commission is due to table a 90% climate target for 2040, according to a leaked draft, while a coalition of 11 EU countries including France and Germany have issued a letter calling for ambitious targets.

The EU executive is due to present its climate target plan for 2040 on 6 February, aiming for a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on the way to reaching climate neutrality by mid-century.

“To put the EU on a firm path to climate neutrality, this communication proposes a 2040 climate target for the EU of 90% net GHG emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels,” reads a draft document seen by Euractiv and first obtained by Carbon Pulse.

The proposal could save more than 250,000 lives a year from reduced air pollution, whilst cutting related healthcare costs by €1 trillion annually.

Scaled-back fossil fuel imports would save another €2.8 trillion in the 2031-2050 period, the document says.

Cutting emissions will provide the majority of the plan’s climate ambition, but the role of natural carbon sinks – CO2 aborptions from forests or peatlands, which proved controversial in the 2030 climate target – has yet to be decided in the draft at hand.

“To deliver a reduction of net GHG emissions of 90%, the level of emission in 2040 should be no less than XXX MtCO2-eq and removals from the atmosphere through land based and industrial carbon removals at least XXX MtCO2,” the draft document says, suggesting the final figures will be decided at the last minute.

How much of the 2040 target will come from carbon sinks remains a political decision. But the Commission draft already makes clear that a share of it will come from carbon removals.

11-country letter

The plan, which does not contain legal obligations for EU countries at this stage, will be discussed by EU leaders at one of ther upcoming summit meetings, with a preliminary decision on the final target expected at the June EU summit.

The EU’s two biggest countries, Germany and France, backed by Spain, Austria and the Netherlands alongside six other countries, saw fit to intervene.

“The need for ambitious global climate action has never been more evident,” starts a letter the 11-country coalition sent on 25 January, adding that “we strongly encourage the European Commission … to recommend an ambitious EU climate target for 2040.”

Doing so would “send a strong political signal that the EU will lead by example to convince other large emitters to follow suit to ensure the necessary contributions to keep 1.5 °C alive in a timely manner before COP30,” they add.

The coalition sent this letter when the Commission had already circulated its plan to propose the 90% target.

A deal for competitiveness

Looking forward, the document also sketches “the next decade” of the European Green Deal with an “industry decarbonisation deal”, with “a renewed European agenda for sustainable industry and competitiveness” to complement the Green Deal.

This industry decarbonisation deal “must reflect the global and geopolitical context” where  competition for clean technologies is intensifying, the document argues, pointing out that demand for clean tech is expected to triple by the end of this decade.

This should include “a secure and conducive regulatory and financing environment”, the document adds, saying “sizeable private investment is necessary to make the transition succeed” making it necessary to make the EU an attractive destination for investment.

On this, the 11-country coalition agrees. “Meeting our climate goals in a cost-effective way is essential to economic growth, energy security and increasing the EU’s industrial competitiveness,” the letter insists.

Even further, “it will send a strong signal to the market to increase the EU’s domestic development and manufacturing of net-zero technologies,” they add.

The Commission espouses similar views. “If the transformation succeeds, the EU will maintain its competitive advantage in sectors like wind power, hydropower, and electrolyser, where it already has a trade surplus,” the draft states.

In “growing sectors like batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, solar PV, CCU/CCS, biogas technology, and circular economy,” the EU could “try to continue building new competitive advantage.”

Reactions

Wijnand Stoefs from green NGO Carbon Market Watch said he was disappointed with the 90% target comprising CO2 removals from carbon sinks like forests.

“The ‘net’ in the ‘net 90%’ can camouflage a lot of inaction, and create an overreliance on land sinks and technical removals that future generations of policymakers and citizens will have to deliver on. As the EU’s land sinks have been in decline for many years now, and technical removals are in their infancy and have major sustainability impacts, reliance on any method to srub carbon from the atmosphere should be minimised,” he said.

Stoef’s comments echo criticism of the Commission’s climate target for 2030.

When it was presented back in 2020, the Commission included carbon removals from forests in its proposal to cut emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, attracting criticism from NGOs which called it an “accounting trick” to inflate the EU’s climate ambition.

At the time, Commission officials admitted that the 55% target would be slightly less ambitious without carbon sinks, saying the resulting target would be -53%, not -55%.

Commission under fire for including 'carbon sinks' into EU climate goals

The European Commission on Thursday (17 September) defended its plan to bring carbon removals from agriculture, land use and forestry into the EU’s updated climate target for 2030, saying this was in line with UNFCCC standards.

 [Edited by Alice Taylor and Frédéric Simon]

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