Baltic shadow tankers: Growing threat to environmental safety and regional stability

The alarming rise of unregulated "shadow" tankers transporting Russian oil through the Baltic Sea—an increase of 30% last year—poses a serious threat to the region's environment and safety.

Maksym Gardus is Communications Specialist and Oleg Savytskyi is Strategic Advisor at Razom We Stand

Up to 60 tankers pass through Danish waters monthly, often operating without proper insurance and outside international regulations. These vessels frequently avoid using local pilots, significantly elevating the risk of accidents and oil spills. Experts warn that if this trend continues, environmental disasters are not just possible—they are inevitable.

The Baltic Sea as a strategic zone

The Baltic Sea serves as a crucial artery for international oil trade, particularly for Russian energy exports. Nearly one-third of Russia's maritime oil shipments traverse Danish territorial waters, constituting about 1.5% of the global oil supply.

This has transformed the Baltic Sea, especially Danish waters, into a critical transit route for Russian oil.

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, tanker traffic in the region has surged, with many vessels now part of the so-called "shadow fleet"—ageing tankers that operate outside established safety standards and lack adequate insurance.

Studies indicate that the average age of these ships is 29.3 years, making them increasingly susceptible to accidents and mechanical failures. In response, Denmark is actively exploring measures to restrict oil transport in its waters, with Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia echoing concerns about the mounting risks these tankers present.

Regulating oil traffic through the Baltic Sea is crucial for stabilising the region, reducing environmental risks, and ensuring compliance with international regulations on the transport of hazardous materials.

These measures will also help prevent tankers from being used for espionage or transporting weapons and illicit goods to Russian Baltic ports.

Pilots are no longer local

In the wake of sanctions against Russia, the use of local Danish pilots by Russian oil tankers has ceased. This shift appears aimed at evading international oversight, as local pilots enforce independent supervision and adherence to international safety standards for transporting hazardous materials.

Instead, Russia now relies on foreign operators, often from nations that do not maintain the same rigorous safety protocols, potentially to obscure the true purpose of certain vessels used for espionage.

Dismissing Danish pilots dramatically heightens the risk of accidents, as foreign pilots may not fully understand the local sea conditions and specific hazards of the Baltic Sea. This reliance on foreign operators further diminishes oversight over sanctioned cargo transport, raising additional safety and compliance concerns.

Environmental and security risks for the Baltic States

The potential for a large-scale oil spill in the Baltic Sea carries catastrophic implications. Such an event would contaminate coastal regions for hundreds of kilometres, wreaking havoc on ecosystems and marine life, particularly in Danish waters. The long-lasting effects of pollution would disrupt habitats and threaten the survival of countless species.

Moreover, the fallout from such pollution would extend beyond environmental damage to economic devastation. Tourism—a crucial lifeline for coastal economies—could suffer significantly as polluted beaches become unwelcoming for visitors for years. Additionally, a major oil spill could wreak havoc on fishing and other economic activities reliant on clean waters, leading to losses amounting to billions of euros.

While the governments of Denmark and neighbouring Baltic countries have stepped up their efforts to protect their territorial waters, these initiatives remain inadequate in tackling the growing issue of shadow oil traffic. Denmark is exploring enhanced inspections of Russian oil tankers; however, many vessels continue to operate with insufficient oversight due to gaps in international legislation and the standards set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The EU plays an essential role in crafting new regulations to manage tanker traffic in the Baltic Sea. Proposed measures aim to reinforce sanctions against vessels that violate international regulations. A unified stance among EU member states is vital, as the transitory nature of Baltic Sea traffic demands collective efforts.

These regulations can be implemented through the standards set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA).

Without these collective actions, the consequences of an oil spill would be dire, polluting marine ecosystems, jeopardising tourism, and undermining the economies of the Baltic States, including Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Poland, and Latvia.

The urgency for collective action has never been greater. Only through close cooperation, enhanced monitoring, the establishment of new safety standards for shipping, and tougher sanctions can we avert potential disasters and preserve the region's environmental integrity.

It is imperative that we act decisively—not just to mitigate risks but to ensure a sustainable and secure future for the Baltic Sea and its communities.