DB Research: Regatta enlargement still possible

In its latest Enlargement Monitor, Deutsche Bank Research says that two different scenarios are still possible for the EU’s enlargement: a big-bang enlargement to 10 candidates or a regatta enlargement to smaller groups of candidates.

The Deutsche Bank Research Enlargement Monitor foresees two possible enlargement scenarios for the 10 Central and Eastern European candidate countries:

  • Big-bang in 2005:according to this scenario, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia could join the EU in 2005. Deutsche Bank believes that it will take the EU until the end 2003 to ratify the Nice Treaty, and between 2004 and 2005 to ratify the accession treaties with the first group of candidates. Bulgaria and Romania would join the EU at some time after 2008 according to this scenario, and the first candidates would join the euro-zone after 2008.
  • Regatta:According to this scenario, the EU would admit four Central and Eastern European countries in 2004: Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Estonia. The next wave in 2006 would include Poland, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania. The accession of Bulgaria and Romania would follow at some time after 2008.

 

The EU leaders said at their Laeken summit on 15 December that they would bring the accession negotiations with the candidate countries, who are ready, to a successful conclusion by the end of 2002. Those countries could then take part in the European Parliament elections in 2004 as members.

The Laeken European Council agreed that Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and Slovenia could be ready if the present rate of progress of the negotiations and reforms in the candidate States is maintained.

 

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