Romanians to pick new president in tight race

On the eve of the 28 November presidential vote, the race
between Adrian Nastase and Traian Basescu remains too close to
call, reports EURACTIV’s Romanian partner portal site.

The two hottest contenders for the post – whose holder will lead
Romania into the EU – are the outgoing Prime Minister Adrian
Nastase and the mayor of Bucharest, Traian Basescu. Both are
known to be advocates of Romania’s EU membership.

Nastase, the head of the ruling Social Democratic Party
(PSD), is running on a joint ticket between the PSD and the
Humanist Party (PUR). According to a public opinion poll conducted
by CURS and released on 22 November, the PSD-PUR coalition enjoys
the support of 41% of the voters. Nastase himself would be the
choice for president of 42% of the respondents. However,
another poll, by CSOP (24 November) puts Nastase 0.3% behind his
main contender. The PSD’s candidate for the post of prime minister
is Mircea Geoana, the country’s current foreign minister. 

Basescu, the president of the centrist Democratic Party (PD), is
the presidential candidate of the Justice and Truth Alliance (DA),
which comprises the PD and the National Liberal Party (PNL). The
same CURS poll showed 34% support for the DA alliance and 32% for
Basescu himself. The DA alliance would nominate businessman and
former minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu to the post of premier.

There are a total of twelve candidates vying for the
five-year presidential mandate, half of whom are barely known to
the public at large. The better-known candidates include
Corneliu Vadim Tudor, the leader of the country’s nationalist
Greater Romania Party (PRM) and Béla Markó, the head of the
Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). Tudor may
receive between 9% and 15% of the vote, while Markó is projected
to win around 4%.

Read more with Euractiv

In a joint project, the Romanian weekly Dilema
Veche and EURACTIV.ro
has compiled the first independent
evaluation of the two main parties' political platforms. Under the
project, experts were asked to grade the parties' political offers
in the categories of taxation, pensions, fight against corruption,
health care, education, environmental protection and agriculture.
On a scale of 1 to 10, Nastase's PSD-PUR union obtained an average
of 5.48 points, while Basescu's PNL-PD received 6.06 points.

The president of the Romanian Academic Society
(SAR) 
- an NGO - , Alina Mungiu Pippidi, told
EURACTIV.ro that in Romania it is quite common and accepted that
"people are not saying who they are going to vote for anymore. This
affects the voting option. The PSD is overrated. At least 20% of
those saying that they will vote for the PSD will not vote for the
PSD".

According to a poll which SAR commissioned from
Gallup in the autumn of 2004, the public's discontent towards the
current government was very high. The majority of the respondents
(50%) said that the government was not able to handle the situation
in the country, and felt that the time was ripe for a political
change (72%). Furthermore, the poll revealed that this change
of power should happen after the elections (48%), and that there
was a political alternative to the current government (47% compared
to 32% saying that there wasn't one). 

In a recent analysis, SAR also said that although Nastase's
Social Democrats support the country joining the EU, victory for
them could be fraught with the risk of the country returning
to "destabilising perestroika-type reforms which the Iliescu regime
promoted from 1992 to 1996". In such a scenario, "Romania
would remain a 'black hole' in the middle of an enlarged Europe, a
country riddled with corruption," the SAR
analysis said. 

CURS director Sebastian Lazaroiu has told the
press that "the percentage [shown in the poll results] is not
a prediction for the general elections results", as they also
depend on "the way the undecided will vote, on vote participation
and on the impact of the TV debates in the last 10 days of
campaign". The undecided are known to represent about 30% of the
voters. The CURS poll was commissioned by the Antena 1 TV
station, which is run by the family of Dan Voiculescu, who is a
candidate for the senate on behalf of PSD-PUR. Therefore, the
poll's findings are questioned by some analysts.

Romanians are scheduled to vote in the first round of
presidential elections on 28 November to elect a head of state who
would succeed 74-year-old Ion Iliescu. Iliescu has been a key
political figure of the country since the change of the political
system in 1989. Having served two terms, the law does not
allow him to run for a third.

To win the first election round, a candidate would have
to win over 50% of the vote. This, according to analysts, is
an unlikely scenario, especially since the race appears to be
too close to call. The run-off round of the elections is
scheduled for 12 December. 

On 28 November, the country will also vote in legislative
elections. Fifty-seven political parties and national minorities'
organisations are competing.

Analysts expect voter turnout to reach 64%, notwithstanding the
fact that a number of Romanians working abroad will not be
able to cast their ballots in the absence of an appropriate number
of voting centres worldwide, especially in the US and the EU
countries.

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