All Change in Ankara

All Change in Ankara

There is an old Turkish proverb “Calm horses tend to kick hard…” This seems a very appropriate way to describe the results of the Turkish elections. On 3 November, Turkey’s voters handed a crushing defeat to the country’s political establishment in an unprecedented political massacre with over 500 deputies losing their seats. The country witnessed one of the most important elections since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk created the Republic in 1923. Now as then the elections were about fundamental changes to society. In 1923 the issues included banning the fez, dressing in western clothes, moving to a latin alphabet and changing policies to align Turkey with western countries. On 3 November, 41 million people went to the polls determined to end to years of mismanagement, corruption and economic hardships. This they have done in spectacular fashion. All three of the parties that formed the coalition government (DSP-MHP-ANAP) have been eliminated from Parliament as none managed to pass the required 10% threshold. As predicted in recent polls, the Justice & Development Party (AKP) won a landslide victory and will hold more than 360 of the 550 seats in the new parliament (just a few short of the two thirds needed to be able to change the constitution). The AKP victory means for the first time in more than a decade Turkey will have a single party government, rather than the coalitions that have ruled since 1991. The only other party to pass the 10% electoral threshold was the Republicans People’s Party (CHP), which will return some 178 deputies. The remaining seats will be held by independents.

The Winner

AKP (Justice & Development Party)


Percentage of Vote: ± 34%

The AKP is a reincarnation of the REFAH (Welfare) and FAZILET (Virtue) parties, whose anti-secular pro-fundamental agendas led to them being banned from Turkish politics in the 1990s. Nowadays, the AKP rejects the Islamist label, describing itself as conservative and democratic, pro-western and pro-market. AKP took advantage of the fragmentation of Turkey’s centrist parties – especially the implosion of the centrist Motherland Party (ANAP) – to fill the void in the political center and thereby attracted traditionally moderate urban voters. In addition, AKP made inroads in the vast rural Anatolian heartland stealing many votes from the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). The party also received millions of “protest votes” from people who have endured excessive economic hardships in the past two years in the hands of an incompetent administration.

The party has moved quickly to dispel fears of a hidden pro-Islamist agenda, stating that the new government will strengthen Turkeys relations with the West, continue to work with the IMF to restructure the economy and to adhere to the country’s secular constitution. It has stated that it has no intention of expanding the role of Islam in public life. AKP has also confirmed that it is ready and committed to taking responsibility to build up political will to accelerate the EU entry process and will be sending representatives to all EU capitals very shortly.

The party’s creator, the charismatic, highly popular former major of Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was recently banned from running for Parliament because of pro-religious, anti-secular statements made several years ago. In 1999 he spent 4 months in prison for reading a poem that a court deemed to incite religious hate. As he walked to the prison, flanked by thousands of supporters, Erdogan quoted an old Turkish saying “the song does not end here” and how right he was. Although Erdogan’s banning meant he could not run for Parliament, he still remained as leader, and the party became even more popular with crowds turning up in their thousands at party rallies. Erdogan won the party many votes on his promise to clean up the corruption in Turkish politi cs which most Turks believe is the root cause of the economic recession and by promising to look out for the “little people” promising running water in every home and lower prices for fuel for farmers.

However, AKP still faces an obstacle with the Constitutional Court due to hear a request by Turkey’s Chief Prosecutor, Sabih Kanadoglu, to close the party for breaching the electoral and party laws because Mr Erdogan refused to step down as leader. The Constitutional Court has given him 15 days to prepare his defence case. It remains unclear, in the absence of Erdogan, who their candidate for Prime Minister would be but Abdullah Gül the Deputy Chairman of the Party, has been widely tipped to be nominated by the AKP as its leader in the Parliament although Vecdi Gonul, a former chairman of the Count of Auditors and an old friend of President Sezer and Abdulkadir Aksu, a former government minister and regional security chief have also been suggested.

It is worth recalling that Turkey’s first Islamist led government was driven from power in 1997 by an army led campaign. Few expect that sort of turmoil this time around, but certainly the secularist establishment will be watching closely to see whether the AKP keep religion out of politics

The Runners-Up

CHP (Republican Peoples Party)


Percentage of Vote: ± 19.4%

The only other party to cross the 10% threshold, and will therefore be the sole opposition party in government, is the leftist Republican Peoples Party (CHP), the party that was founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and was represented continuously in governments until the previous elections. The party leader, Deniz Baykal has spent the last few years rebuilding the party’s reputation and it received a major boost when the very popular and influential former Economy Minister and ex-World Bank Vice-President, Kemal Dervis joined the party in August this year. Many voters who had previously supported the DYP and ANAP placed their vote with CHP because of their confidence in Dervis.

The Losers

The remaining 16 parties that took part in the election were unable to pass the 10% threshold. The most serious casualties were the most well know parties: the Motherland Party (ANAP) of Mesut Yilmaz the Minister responsible for EU affairs who worked very hard to advance Turkey’s EU candidacy but whose career was plagued with sleaze allegations and who refused to resign as leader of his party earlier this year (at the demand of party members) has cost his party dearly as it only managed to obtain a 5.1% of votes. The Democratic Left Party (DSP) of the current Prime Minister and old-time hawk of Turkish politics Bülent Ecevit also suffered a serious defeat on 3 November only obtaining 1.2%. Due to a period of illness before the summer when Ecevit held back on several key political issues, around 50% of his party deserted him and it almost resulted in the collapse of the government. The National Action Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahçeli who is most famous for attempting to block the reforms (unsuccessfully) needed for Turkey to meet the Copenhagen Criteria, and for being the instigator of these early elections, is also out in the cold. Tansu Çiller’s True Path Party (DYP) just failed to pass the 10% margin receiving 9.5%. Mrs Çiller was Turkey’s first ever female prime minister in the mid-90s and responsible for the Customs Union with the EU. However, government contract irregularities (linked to her husband’s business activities) have plagued her reputation. Since the election all of the above party leaders have decided to resign.

Two other casualties included the xenophobic multi-millionaire business tycoon Cem Uzan and his Youth Party (GP) who had been predicted to get into the new parliament. This was not to be and his political career seems to have come to an end before it had really started and he will be left to face a series of criminal court charges both in Turkey and abroad linked to his mobile phone company. Another casualty was the New Party (YP) of former foreign minister Ismail Cem, whose ambitions took a knock when Kemal Dervis decided to join the CHP instead of his own party.

What Lies Ahead?

The new government faces several serious problems. On the external front these include the Copenhagen European Council, Cyprus and Iraq. On the domestic front the dire state of the economy is the major issue.

Copenhagen Summit & Turkey’s Quest for a Date to Start Negotiations

The 12 December European Council in Copenhagen will be the first serious test for the new government. The Commission’s recent Regular Report on Enlargement sent a tidal wave of disappointment through the country and left many Turks feeling very bitter towards the EU as it did not provide a date for opening accession talks. The report welcomed the recent abolition of the death penalty and the new language and cultural rights extended to the Kurds but points out that Turkey still does not fully meet the political criteria. The report states that many of the legal reforms passed still remain unimplemented; that there is a continuing use of torture by the police; that many party officials still remain in prison and that politicians are still being banned from elections; that the prosecution of writers, journalists and publishers is still occurring; and that there are still restrictions on the right to freedom of religious expression. Moreover, during the recent Brussels European Council the news broke in Turkey that the country’s powerful military/security council had opened legal proceeding against a number of German Foundations (including the Konrad Adenauer and Frederick Ebert Institutes) for allegedly being part of a conspiracy against Turkey’s “territorial integrity.” This seems to be a reference to work done by these bodies on Kurdish and other minority rights and on devolved government in Turkey.

Not receiving a date came as a blow to the nation as many Turks had been led to believe that the series of much debated political reforms that were carried out in August would earn their country a date. There is also a great feeling of resentment because the Turk feeling that they are being unfairly treated because they are a Muslim country. The EU of course, always denies this.

Far from accepting the Commission’s report, Turkish representatives from all walks of life have been very active in recent weeks lobbying Member State capitals and requesting the support of heads of state and government in their quest for a date. It appears that they have apparently gained substantially more support than some commentators imagined. Surprisingly, the leader of the pack is the Greek Foreign Minister, George Papandreou. The UK, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain have also signaled that they would support Turkey.

The United States has also been pushing the EU on this issue due to Turkeys pivotal strategic position.

If, in the end, no definitive date is given it will be up to the new government to convince the country that this is not the end of road (which is what some anti-EU circles in Turkey have been spreading) and keep the pro-European fires burning. It is, however, very unlikely that Turkey will leave the Copenhagen Summit completely empty handed. One suggestion is that they will end up with a “a date for a date” style scenario.

Cyprus

Cyprus weighs heavy on the shoulders of Turkey. In the worst case scenario, the failure of Greek and Turkish Cypriots to reach a settlement in the on-going talks could result in a divided Cyprus being admitted as a member. This would create a crisis in Ankara that would poison relations between the EU and Turkey. The current Turkish government has already threatened on several occasions that if this happens they would very likely annex northern Cyprus which wo uld result in creating more turmoil and tension in the region. This in turn would most likely push the EU into freezing their membership application.

It is hoped that the new government will press Northern Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas to be more flexible at the negotiating table. A solution for Cyprus could be Turkey’s ace for obtaining a date at the Copenhagen Summit for opening accession negotiations.

Iraq

Turkey does not want a war with Iraq, fearing the Kurds desire to establish an independent state in Northern Iraq which could completely destabalise the region as a whole. The new government is likely to follow the UN path for the foreseeable future. However, Turkey’s cooperation would be crucial to any military operation. About 1.700 US soldiers are based in Turkey – most are at the Incirlik air base where US and UK planes patrolling Irak’s northern “no-fly” zone are based.

Another concern is the economic and financial fall-out from a war in the region. After the 1991 Gulf War Turkey’s economy lost $40 billion worth of trade with its oil rich neighbour. This time around the Turks have requested that the US give them compensation for any losses.

The Iraq issue will remain a “blind spot” for some weeks. This is because, according to the Turkish system, the former Parliament maintains its powers until the forming of the new parliament and the new parliament can only be formed two weeks after the election.

The Economy

In the Spring of 2001 Turkeys financial markets went into a tailspin after Prime Minister Ecevit lashed out at President Ahmet Necdet Sezer after he accused the government of not doing enough to fight corruption. This incident sparked Turkey’s worst ever economic crisis and the country was brought to the brink of economic ruin. Today Turkey is still suffering the consequences with the slightest sign of instability within government, such as when Bülent Ecevit became ill earlier this year and held off on some key decisions, resulting in yet another crisis.  

The Turkish economy is balanced on a knifes edge. Soaring interest rates and decreasing investment have choked growth and left employment at its highest rate (± 10%) in 20 years. Tourism, a revenue mainstay, is also still reeling from the September 11 attacks and the impending war in Iraq. Foreign capital seems to have disappeared and investment still remains very low at $1 billion a year.

The new government will have to reassure financial markets by reconfirming that the IMF programme is on track (Turkey negotiated a $16 billion rescue package with the IMF); rapidly moving through the planned review of the programme progress and agreeing a budget for next year with the primary fiscal surplus target of 6.5% GDP set by the programme. Unsurprisingly, the IMF delayed the next $1.6bn tranche due to Turkey until after the election. Only a return of confidence in the government will bring down interest rates which soared as a result of the summer’s political crisis.

Conclusion

The new government has an enormously important agenda to face. It will have to act swiftly and carefully in dealing with the many burning issues that await it both on the external and domestic fronts. It seems clear that the people of Turkey want change and have voted for a better future for themselves and their families. The new government will have a very heavy burden on its shoulders and it cannot afford to let the nation down.

Amanda Akçakoca is a Programme Executive at The EPC

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