An interim plan for South-East Europe: Customs union with the EU and a regional Schengen for the fre

Pending clarification of further enlargement prospects for the whole of the Western Balkans, Michael Emerson of the Centre for European Policy Studies  argues in this paper that there is every reason to consolidate the positive recent developments with further initiatives of strategic importance to the region. He explores two outstanding candidates for this purpose: 1) enlargement of the existing Customs Union of the EU and Turkey to include the whole of the Western Balkans, and 2) a South-East European Schengen Agreement for the free movement of people.

The central recommendation of the Amato report of April 2005 set the year 2014 as the target accession date for the whole of the Western Balkans, which would take the EU from the 27 (in 2007 or 2008) to 32 member states minimally, 33 with Turkey, and 35 in the event of independence for Montenegro and Kosovo. This scenario is in contradiction with the present mood of the EU following the French and the Dutch referenda, which rejected the Constitution that was itself designed to pave the way institutionally for further enlargement. The EU has now officially entered a period of profound reflection on its future, a process which cannot be hurried. 

While the Amato group had bad luck in its timing, a mood of pessimism in the region is not necessary. Recent developments in relations between the EU and South-East Europe have on the contrary been really quite promising. In October it was decided that accession negotiations could now begin with both Turkey and Croatia, and negotiations with Serbia- Montenegro and with Bosnia for Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAAs) are to be launched. This package of agreements needed a dose of cliff-hanging political drama to get adopted, but such is invariably the case for all important decisions taken by the EU and its member states. The Commission still highlights problems to be resolved by Bulgaria and Romania, but only 12 months separate the most positive versus negative outcomes: 1 January 2007 or 2008. 

Two regional economic initiatives that have emerged in the course of 2004 are also notable: the signing of the Energy Community between the EU and the whole of South-East Europe, and the opening of Single European Sky negotiations between the EU and states of the region. The civil aviation agreements would encourage new regional airline networks, so badly needed. With ongoing work to upgrade the Trans-European Network of transport corridors through the region, three strategic economic networks (energy, land and air transport) will be progressing for the region as a whole, irrespective of who accedes to the EU earlier or later. 

Since the process of enlargement cannot be hurried, there is every reason to consolidate the positive recent developments with further initiatives of strategic importance to the region. There are two outstanding candidates for this purpose: 1) enlargement of the existing Customs Union of the EU and Turkey to include the whole of the Western Balkans, and 2) a South-East European Schengen Agreement. 

Together these could be at the heart of a new interim plan for the region, pending clarification of further enlargement prospects. 

To read the article in full, visit the CEPS website.