Bargaining season opens over Cyprus, EU

Bargaining season opens over Cyprus, EU

An intense bargaining season has started over
Turkey’s place in Europe and the future of the Mediterranean island
of Cyprus.

The next four months will be very crucial for
Turkey’s European Union bid as well as for Cyprus developments
since efforts to work out a solution on the eastern Mediterranean
island will reach a climax while Ankara will either get a date and
maintain its hopes for a possible accession in 2007 or will
continue knocking on the European door without a membership
perspective.

Annoyed with statements from northern Cyprus and
Ankara that if the European Union goes along with the plans and
spells out a date for Greek Cypriot accession at its December
Copenhagen summit Ankara and the Turkish Republic of northern
Cyprus (KKTC) would accelerate their integration, Washington and
London on the one hand, Brussels on the other, as well as United
Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan have started to build up
pressure on the Turkish government and Turkish Cypriot President
Rauf Denktas.

In the latest talks with United Nations Cyprus
Envoy Alvaro de Soto, American State Department Cyprus Coordinator
Thomas Weston and British Cyprus special envoy Sir David Hannay, as
well as with EU officials, Ankara and northern Cyprus has
reportedly underlined that they did not want “surprise”
developments on Cyprus.

President Denktas, in latest talks with both De
Soto and Hannay has reportedly stressed that whatever the cost
would be he would reject any imposition.

Annan, according to well-placed sources, has
postponed his intention of submitting a “non-paper” outline for a
Cyprus settlement. The new U.N. “set of ideas” sources said was to
be presented to Denktas and Clerides when the secretary-general met
the two leaders in Paris on Sept. 6, but taking into consideration
the forthcoming elections in Turkey, Annan has postponed presenting
the “non-paper” until December.

“The U.N. chief is not going to present any
proposals at the Paris encounter but he is likely to sound out the
two leaders on his intention to do so,” a source said.

According to sources, the “set of ideas” will
offer a basis for a solution and will be presented in the form of
the ultimatum: “Take it or leave it”.

According to diplomatic sources, if the Greek
side accepts the U.N. proposal — even if the Turks don’t — the
path will be clear for Greek Cypriots to join the EU.

Turkish Cypriot President Denktas, on the other
hand, may unveil in the days ahead a new and comprehensive package
for a Cyprus settlement, well-placed sources said. The new offer by
Denktas, which was expected to be presented to the Greek Cypriot
side late last month, but was delayed, would cover all aspects of
the Cyprus problem, the sources said.

The direct talks between the two sides on
Cyprus, which was initiated by Denktas and has been continuing
since Jan. 16, have so far failed to produce a substantive
breakthrough, although both sides acknowledge that on many aspects
of the almost 40-year-old power sharing problem between the two
peoples of the island, the two sides are closer to a deal than
ever.

Still, the sides, according to well-placed
sources, remain far apart, among some other minor issues,
particularly on issues related to governance — Turkish Cypriots
want a confederation of two sovereign states while Greek Cypriots
want a unitary federation –, “reinstitution of property rights” —
Turkish Cypriots refuse accept the “right to return” for Greek
Cypriot refugees and offer a compensation and exchange of property
scheme while Greek Cypriots insist on return of “majority” of
refugees to their former homes in northern Cyprus-and future role
of the United Nations peacekeepers — Greek Cypriots want the U.N.
force permanently stay on the island and oversee the implementation
of the settlement accord while Turkish Cypriots say U.N. force
could stay for some time on Cyprus after the settlement but cannot
be given the permanent status of overseeing a settlement as such a
move would be in contradiction with the principle of
sovereignty.

The continued stalemate in the talks and the
approaching December deadline, on the other hand, has started
forcing the two sides to follow a tougher line. While Greek Cypriot
leader Glafcos Clerides and senior executives of his administration
publicly have been stressing that they would never accept a
settlement that would give sovereignty to the Turkish Cypriot
state, Ankara and northern Cyprus has started to talk of “tit for
tat” action against possible Greek Cypriot unilateral EU
accession.

According to Ankara and northern Cyprus, the
1960 treaties that gave birth to the Cyprus Republic clearly rule
out “in part or whole” membership of the island in any economic,
political or military organization in which both Turkey and Greece
are already members.

While Britain, one of the guarantor powers of
the 1960 accords together with Greece and Turkey, has been
stressing that the treaties did not bar the island from entering
the EU, Ankara has been saying that such a move would be
incompatible with international law.

Ankara has declared earlier this summer that it
would not accept such a unilateral EU accession by Greek Cypriots
and could annex northern Cyprus in retaliation.

Such a move by Ankara, on the other hand, would
seriously hamper Turkey’s own ambition of becoming a member of the
European Union.

Irish referendum

While an island is complicating Turkey’s EU
accession prospects, another island may perhaps be holding the key
that could effectively prevent an all-out confrontation between
Turkey and Brussels.

According to an August 19-21 survey by the
Reuters news agency with leading 36 economists and political
analysts, the expansion plans of the EU could fall victim to an
Irish referendum, besides a set of other factors including high
cost of financing, and Brussels may be compelled to postpone
enlargement designs beyond January 2004.

Last year, Irish voters unexpectedly rejected
the Nice Treaty, whose changes to EU voting and other
administrative arrangements are needed to make enlargement
manageable. Another referendum is due around October, and a second
rejection could lead to a delay in the bloc’s expansion plans.

If the Irish referendum on the Nice Treaty
fails, the immediate fall out on the accession plans of the EU
would be that the relevant points, such as the number of seats in
the European Parliament each accession country gets, would have to
be written into accession treaties. Thus, the enlargement plans of
Brussels will have to be postponed by at least a year.

Postponement of the EU enlargement plans would
on the one hand ease the Turkish pressure on Brussels to give it a
date for the start of accession talks, while postponing for at
least one year a possible confrontation between the EU and Turkey
over the eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus while also
providing some additional time to peacemaking talks between Denktas
and Clerides.

While the U.S. and British envoys have been
touring Ankara, Athens and the two parts on Cyprus to advise
restraint and urge all four asides to be more forthcoming and
contribute to a resolution of the Cyprus problem, there have been
intense diplomatic contacts by both Ankara and Athens also.

Greek offer

Greek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis is preparing
to launch a tour of European capitals this week to explain to his
European counterparts the merits of allowing Greek Cypriots in at
the December Copenhagen summit, his Foreign Minister George
Papandreou telephoned last week his Turkish counterpart Sukru Sina
Gurel to explain that Greece would help Turkey to get a date for
the start of accession talks if Ankara showed flexibility on Greek
Cypriot EU accession.

Sukru Gurel, on the other hand, is launching
today a month-long program which would take him in stages to almost
all European capitals to explain Turkey’s right to get a date for
the start of accession talks as Ankara has completed with the
latest reforms the Copenhagen criteria while on the other hand
telling European colleagues that Turkey’s reaction to the Greek
Cypriot EU entry “will not have a limit.”

Gurel will explain to his European counterparts
that Ankara has fulfilled all its pledges to Brussels and has fully
complied with the Copenhagen criteria and now expects the EU give
it a date for the start of accession talks.

After heavy pressure from the EU and the United
States, the Turkish Parliament abolished last month the death
penalty and granted greater rights to the country’s Kurds — moves
aimed at earning membership in the European Union.

The EU made abolishing the death penalty a
condition for Turkey to join the Union after making it a candidate
for membership in 1999, while international activist groups have
long lobbied for an end to restrictions on Kurdish education and
language-use.

The trip of Gurel comes amid reports from
Brussels that Guenter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for
Enlargement, has said this week that although Turkish reforms were
appreciated, the EU would see application of those reforms before
giving Ankara a date for the start of talks.

Turkey, however, tend to evaluate Verheugen’s
remarks as aimed for “domestic political consumption” in Germany
and the approach of both the German EU commissioner, as well as the
German government towards Turkey’s EU membership will change once
the elections were held in that country.

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