Czech Republic: Yes Beyond a Doubt

There can be little doubt about the Czechs’ support for EU membership after 77.3 percent vote in favor, but the president refuses to say which way he voted.

In the days before Czechs voted on joining the
European Union, a giant metronome on a hill overlooking the Vltava
River swung between two giant signposts, one reading “Yes” and the
other “No.”

By the time the metronome stopped ticking, the
direction its hand was pointing was absolutely clear: 77.3 percent
of Czechs had voted in favor of joining the EU in May 2004.

Support on this scale surprised some
commentators, with the political weekly Respekt asserting that
“only real optimists could have expected such good news.” Opinion
polls had long indicated that the referendum would succeed–partly
because the result did require a minimum turnout to be recognized
as legitimate. Nonetheless, the speculation that the no vote could
be large had been taken to a new level by the EU commissioner for
enlargement, Gunther Verheugen, who said that if there were a Nobel
prize for skepticism, the Czechs would win.

In the end, the Czechs showed that they feel
very much the same about the EU as their Central and Eastern
European neighbors. Although the yes count was the lowest so far in
the region’s series of referendums, which have shown support
ranging from 78 percent (in Poland) to 93 percent (in Slovakia),
political analyst Bohumil Dolezal argues that “it is clear
that these results are not much better or worse than the results in
other Visegrad countries.” (The three other members of the
Visegrad Group are Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.)

The turnout was also similar, though fewer voted
in Hungary (45.6 percent) and Slovakia (52.1 percent).

The new EU commissioner will take his seat in
Brussels backed by a consensus that was broadly similar across town
and country, age, profession, and education. Only the opinions of
the unemployed (65 percent) and Communist voters (37 percent)
differed significantly from the average.

‘FOR THE FIRST TIME, NO ONE HAS DECIDED FOR
CZECHS’

For Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda, the result
closed the post-1989 chapter of Czech history. “For the first
time, no one has decided for Czech citizens. It is Czech citizens
who have made their own decision,” he said.

Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla, who leads the
Social Democrats, the strongest party in the governing coalition,
reached further back into history. The results put a line under
World War II, which “tore the Czech lands out of Europe.” After the
weekend’s “historic, fateful” vote, the Czech Republic could
expect “peace, progress, and stability” from membership. The Czech
Republic would enter the EU confident of itself, independent, and
capable of influencing the union’s affairs, he said.

Political analyst Dolezal took a more
down-to-earth view, saying that “there is no reason for either
pessimism or euphoria.”

Antonin Berdych from the Institute for
International Affairs contends that the Czechs really are a
skeptical nation. The results of the referendum did not disprove
that, but instead showed just how strongly Czechs support the EU.
He believes the EU is the “only reasonable option” for Czech
foreign policy.

Voters expressed a wide range of reasons for
wanting to join the EU as they emerged from polling stations. A
46-year-old civil servant, Ivana Musilova, said she expected
membership to improve the lives of future generations of Czechs, if
not current generations. Although prices might go up initially, she
believes “accession will mean better opportunities for business,
studies, and employment abroad.” Petra Dobra, a 33-year-old
waitress, expects the Czech health care and education system to
improve.

THE SKEPTICS

Despite the success of the referendum, doubts
remain about the enthusiasm of the country’s political elite
for European integration.

Alone of all the region’s presidents,
Vaclav Klaus refused to say whether he had voted yes. Before the
vote he called on Czechs to vote but said that “in no way can or
would I want to” influence anyone. Speaking to the BBC’s
Czech service before the referendum, he supported his case by
saying “I was elected president of the Czech Republic, including
all its citizens–both those who will vote for and against
accession.”

Pressed to make his position clear as he left
the polling station, Klaus replied with the words: “I’ll say
only one thing, and that is that I voted correctly. That’s the
important news.”

Nor did he do much to lift the suspicion that he
had voted no when he failed to come out with a statement
immediately after the result. He finally broke his silence a day
later, saying that the Czechs had “passed [a] test” in voting in
the referendum.

Over the past decade, Klaus has been arguably
the most prominent euroskeptic in the region, or “eurorealist,” in
his own phrase. During the campaign, he refrained from similar
criticisms, but he did tell the daily Lidove noviny that Czechs
should have “enjoyed their independence” for longer than they did.
However, “because of European developments that run ahead without
regard for us and our little country, this phase has been very
short.”

In characteristically forthright style, he had
earlier criticized the campaign, which cost 200 million crowns
($7.6 million), as “biased, stupid propaganda” that was
holding up “rose-tinted glasses” to people’s
eyes. The campaign included television spots showing Czech
pensioners spending holidays in Sicily and Mallorca after
accession.

People close to the president were more open in
their comments. Petr Mach, an adviser to Klaus, declared before the
referendum that he would vote no, telling one publication that
“[After accession] some laws could be adopted against the
Czech government’s will because it will have too little
say.” In another interview, he warned of a “demographic
crisis” in the EU in 2005 and 2006 that would lead Germany to
question the amount of money it is paying into the EU’s
coffers. “As soon as the Germans say they’ll stop
paying, there won’t be much of this Europe left,” he
concluded.

Dolezal dismisses fears that the Czech Republic
will have too little weight in the union. “It is like a
parliamentary deputy refusing to do his or her job because he or
she might be outvoted. That makes no sense,” he says.
“Of course a small country must be aware that it is a small
country and adjust its policy to match its capacity. It does not
mean, though, that it cannot conduct a free policy.”

He believes the recent Iraq crisis is a vivid
example of “something that the Czech Republic can
influence,” foreign policy. “It just needs to find
allies that will share the same views,” he contends.

Despite its success in seeing through what it
described as its most important task, the Czech government, like
its Polish counterpart, may find the post-referendum period tough.
In an interview for the left-wing daily Pravo on 16 June, Spidla
announced that he would resign if he failed to push planned public
finance reforms through parliament. That would trigger the collapse
of the coalition government. The danger that the reforms might be
voted down is significant. The government enjoys only a two-vote
majority in parliament, and deep divisions within Spidla’s
Social Democrats led to the election of Vaclav Klaus against the
party leadership’s wishes.

There was even speculation before the referendum
that a low turnout would bring down the Spidla cabinet, although
there was no minimum turnout needed to ensure the legitimacy of the
vote.

Based on current opinion polls, Klaus’
former party, the Civil De mocrats (ODS), would win any election
with 33 percent of the vote. Only two majority governments would
probably be possible: between the right-wing Civil Democrats and
the Social Democrats, or between the Civil Democrats and Christian
Democrats.

In May 2004, when the Czech Republic joins the
EU, the EU could therefore find itself dealing with a government
with a far more ambiguous attitude toward European integration.
Over the past 10 years, the ODS has publicly presented accession as
being in the country’s national interest. In 1998, Klaus,
then the country’s prime minister, signed the country’s
application to join, and in 1999 the ODS declared on its election
billboards that “the ODS votes Europe.” Nonetheless,
the party’s relationship with the EU is lukewarm. That was
highlighted on the eve of the EU referendum when Jan Zahradil, the
party’s shadow foreign minister, resigned from the Czech
delegation that is currently debating the new EU constitution on
the grounds that “it will contain some points with which I
cannot identify.”

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