Mercurial days of Turkish politics

Mercurial days of Turkish politics

Turkey is experiencing another phase of
political turmoil with the party of one of the country’s most
long-standing politicians, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, becoming
increasingly isolated as his Democratic Left Party (DSP) dissolves
around him with the resignations of key cabinet and party members
increasing day by day.

The political crisis erupted in July 7, only
hours after coalition member and head of the right-wing Nationalist
Action Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli’s declaration about a November
election in order to put an end to the uncertainty fuelled by the
prime minister’s health problems and divisions within the
government. The PM has not attended any key meetings since May
although he insists he is still fully capable of carrying out his
duties.

The crisis escalated with the Husamettin Ozkan’s
resignation. He was the deputy prime minister and considered one of
Ecevit’s closest aides for years. Other major blows followed, with
the resignation of Foreign Minister, Ismail Cem, and Economy
Minister, Kemal Dervis, giving the reason that Ecevit is unable to
govern the country. Dervis’s resignation was rejected and quickly
withdrawn at the behest of the prime minister and the president.
According to the latest developments, 75 deputies of Prime Minister
Bulent Ecevit’s Democratic Left Party (DSP) quit this week.

Former Foreign Affairs Minister, Ismail Cem,
quickly announced their new party that also includes Economy
Minister Kemal Dervis and former Deputy Prime Minister Husamettin
Ozkan. Speaking at a press conference, Cem said the new party’s
ambitions are a social democratic country and full European Union
membership. Cem also mentioned that the Ecevit government was no
longer able to carry out the policies necessary for Turkey to make
progress.

The resignations from the DSP also change the
balance of power in parliament and threaten the survival of the
three-party coalition. The ultra-right Nationalist Action Party
(MHP) with 127 seats is now Turkey’s largest party. Although Mr
Ecevit has no intention of resigning or calling early elections,
the coalition partners want elections before the scheduled date in
2004 – possibly as early as this September. Mr. Bahceli announced
Nov. 3 as the election date and called for Parliament to convene on
Sept. 1. The pro-Islamist Saadet (happiness or contentment) Party
(SP) and main opposition True Path Party (DYP) have also reached an
agreement for calling an emergency parliamentary meeting this
summer in order to go to early elections. The election date would
be determined by Parliament.

HOW EUROPE PERCEIVES THE POLITICAL CRISIS IN
TURKEY?

Europe is monitoring the current crisis very
closely. The resignations are evaluated as a fatal blow to the
coalition. Much of the European press considers Bulent Ecevit’s
government as having almost no room for maneuver in finding a way
out of this serious crisis. It is also commonly observed in the
European press that they believe the election is very close.

One of the important points is that this crisis
is taking place at a very critical period for Turkey, its focus
should rather be taking more steps in pursuing EU-demanded reforms
in order to start negotiations for its full membership. The EU
Commission has said it will not give Turkey a date for starting
negotiations until it implements key reforms, including abolishing
the death penalty and improving the rights of its Kurdish
minority.

The EU will take its historical decisions
relating to enlargement at the end of the year and Turkey’s
situation will be evaluated in the Copenhagen Summit. Turkey has
been a candidate country since 1999. If Turkey still desire full EU
membership, it is not very important by whom, but the required
reforms have to be pushed through quickly.

WHAT IS NEXT NOW?

In the hard days for the Turkish population,
which has been living through an economic crisis for over one and a
half years, the new movement of Cem-Dervis-Ozkan trio can be seen
as bringing new hopes for a better future as reflecting a new
start. The new movement is perceived to carry out solutions to the
problems of Turkey and erode the entire feeling of hopelessness,
fear, worry, lack of confidence, and pessimism prevailing in the
country. As this society gave a great deal of credit to many
people, it is a possibility that the new center-left movement will
have the chance to govern the country.

However, questions arise: Will the trio
represent the new rather than old? Will they be able to find the
potential they expected at the ballot box?

The other issues, such as the enactment of
Political Parties and Elections laws as well as the EU adaptation
laws still remains in question. However, it is clear that Turkey
needs to push the reforms through which are vital if she wants to
qualify for European Union (EU) membership talks. Time is short and
Brussels is expecting progress on sensitive political reforms by
September. To wait until possible elections in November would mean
Turkey missing the train. Therefore, the pro-EU lobby, to which the
troika belong, would prefer to form an interim administration after
an Ecevit resignation.

At this stage, especially on the eve of the
discussions of a possible US attack to Iraq, the outcome of an
election remains very unclear. Some suggest that the principal
winner would be the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party
(AKP). It has its roots in the Islamic party, Virtue, which was
banned by the Turkish courts. Mr Erdogan says it is no longer
Islamist, but, instead, calls for freedom of expression and
religious belief. If that party were to win, it would almost
certainly upset the secularist army elite and cause serious
instability. The last time a pro-Islamic party was in government,
the Turkish military stepped in and eased them out.

The right wing Nationalist Action Party that had
stormed into government with a campaign for the execution of
captured Kurdish paramilitary leader Abdullah Ocalan will probably
lose some of its votes to the AKP due to their inefficiency to
fulfill their promises. On the other hand, they will take the votes
of many anti-Europeans. However, it is my opinion that if the MHP
achieves to be in government again, it will not block the pursuit
of the reforms needed to qualify for membership talks with the EU.
Nationalist rhetoric – in fact any political rhetoric – can pursue
different ways according to the changing conditions and the complex
structure of the international environment.

Consequently, leaving aside all the discussion
about the reasons for this crisis, whether it is a struggle between
Mrs Rahsan Ecevit and Husamettin Ozkan, or whether it is something
conjured up by the anti-Europeanists, or even a plan by America to
form a new Turkish government that could support a possible attack
on Iraq, or anything else for that matter, an election has been
brought closer. In my opinion, the leading parties will be the AKP,
the MHP and the trio’s new movement, and become part of a coalition
government.

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