Opportunities beyond the Bosphorus – Exploring growth, FDI and trade flows in view of Turkey’s acces

This paper, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, analyses the implications of Turkey’s accession to the European Union.

Abstract

In December 2004, during the Dutch Presidency, the EU will decide whether to open accession negotiations with Turkey. The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs has commissioned this report to describe the possible economic implications of Turkish accession to the European Union with a focus on growth, foreign direct investments (FDI) and trade flows. This report will evaluate the economic dynamics that Turkey could experience in the period ahead, given an accession scenario. It focuses on potential developments in economic growth, trade and investment. The study takes a comparative approach, drawing lessons from the experiences of Central Europe and earlier EU entrants. This analysis was written from the perspective of a Turkey that is progressively adopting policies to align itself with the EU, in tandem with further improving macroeconomic stability. The authors assume that ten years from now, the country will become member of the European Union.

To read the analysis in full, visit the

ABN AMRO website.