Poland: Moving Ahead

Professor Witold Sartorius demonstrates how the new created Polish Government not only faces the challenge of enlargement but also the strong number of anti-European forces elected to the Polish Parliament which threat to dominate the public debate.

The situation regarding Poland’s aspiration for membership of the European Union appears finally to have been cleared up. The new Polish government – elected on 23rd September 2001 – really wants Poland to quickly join the European Union and is ready to give up the previous government’s unrealistic positions. The EU, speaking through its most important leaders, says it wants to enlarge to the east and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, followed by the Enlargement Commissioner Günter Verheugen and other European leaders cannot imagine enlargement without Poland. That is the good news.

However with the recent elections, for the first time quite strong (in numbers) and very outspoken anti-European forces were elected to the Polish parliament. So we see the negotiations speeding up successfully with much goodwill on both sides, while at the same time there is a serious danger that the referendum will be lost, if the Polish eurosceptics are allowed to dominate the public debate. This is a true challenge for the Miller government and it has been recognized as such.

Managing the negotiations

It has taken some time for the structure of management of European affairs to become clear, but now we know that in these matters the “first violin” in the government’s orchestra is played by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, strongly supported by his Secretary of State for European Affairs Ms. Danuta Hübner and the Polish Chief Negotiator Mr. Jan Truszczynski.

This team is very well prepared for the task, since Mr. Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz has extensive government experience (he served as Minister of Justice and Polish prime minister during the 1993-1997 period). Ms. Danuta Hübner has headed the Office of the Committee for European Integration (1993-1997), then was head of the Office of the President of Poland, became first the Deputy Head and then the Head of the UN Economic Commission for Europe in Geneva (the highest UN post ever held by a Polish national) to finally return to Poland in 2001.

Mr. Jan Truszczynski was for five years the Polish ambassador (Head of Polish Mission) to the EU in Brussels and than Head of the Polish President’s Office for European Integration. This new clear organizational setup is a response to the growing critique of the previous inefficient and confused handling of EU affairs in Poland.

Economy before membership?

The now ruling Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) has always pointed out its commitment to European integration and its determination to make Poland a part of this process. Suddenly, however, shortly before the September 2001 elections, everybody in Poland was surprised by the deep crisis in public finances, a difficult heritage left by the Solidarity Government. This problem needs the full and undivided attention of the newly elected Prime Minister Leszek Miller and his team. The public debate has switched for many months now to this single issue, and the new tough budget proposals for 2001 have created a public outcry.

The unavoidable heavy cuts in public spending obviously neither help to improve the atmosphere in the country nor do they help to stop the economic slowdown which affected Poland recently. Putting the public finances back on track must continue to be the government’s top priority, and here all major Polish economists and serious political leaders agree, because bad economic prospects and a broken down system of public finances can seriously hamper Poland’s chances of quickly joining the EU. Poland must also have the capability to co-finance the support which it might request under the EU Structural Funds and other measures and to finance all obligations arising from being a Member State.

The slogan “economy first, membership second” has been taken up by serious economists, who argue that if the Polish economy hits the growth path again, the EU will take Poland in “with open arms”. Such an approach is surely wrong and dangerous. The efforts to get the public finances back on track, to stimulate the economy and to move ahead in negotiations must go in parallel. Luckily, this is exactly how the Miller government has decided to move ahead.

The prime minister has forced a hard tempo onto the negotiations with the EU, with a final deadline set for the end of July 2002 rather than for the end of the year. The difficulties related to the fall 2002 elections in Germany and France have been recognized by the Polish side and have resulted in increased flexibility in the negotiation of issues such as the purchase of land in Poland by EU citizens and access to labor markets in EU Member States for the Polish workforce.

The very good personal relations between Prime Minister Leszek Miller and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, as well as the close political links between the Polish SLD and the German SPD have certainly helped very much in reaching a consensus on the most difficult issues. However, while the latest opinion polls show public support for EU integration has again reached 60%, the issue of allowing foreigners to buy agricultural land in Poland is still very controversial with the level of rejection reaching 80%.

Agriculture and politics

One must also remember that Poland has a coalition government, where the minor partner is a traditional farmers party (PSL) which has been politically weakened by a relatively poor election result. The rural electorate, which is the PSL home base, is generally quite sceptical about the EU. From their point of view, the only convincing argument to vote for Poland’s EU membership is the access for Polish farmers to the support measures available under the Common Agricultural Policy.

However, this is the major stumbling block between the Polish and the EU positions. It has been very disappointing to see how European leaders at their Laeken summit rejected the European Commission’s proposal to roll up the budgetary positions not used in 2002 and 2003 for new Member States and use them to increase funding available for those who join in 2004, up to 2006. This would allow, at least in part, the extension of the existing CAP to the new Member States. This is very important for Poland, not only because of the objective need to support the restructuring of Polish agriculture but also because it could mean winning or loosing the Polish referendum.

A negotiating success in this field would secure the necessary stability of the Polish government, while a failure might lead to a political crisis. This is far more important than the positive judgment by the Commission in regard to the latest progress Poland has made on the chapters to be closed.

Populists and eurosceptics

There is a serious and sudden homemade danger for Poland’s efforts to join the EU. For the first time we find in the Polish parliament a big populist political force which has already proved itself ready to infringe not only the parliamentary rules, but even the rules of civilized behaviour. This “Samoobrona” (Self Defense) party has captured protest votes, especially from smaller cities and rural areas and positions itself politically strongly against the PSL (Samoobrona is today the third force in the Polish Sejm). Its leader Mr. Andrzej Lepper, a “Schiller Institute” trained, dangerous populist has lately captured a lot of attention and popular support in Poland. His popularity has grown with the economic slowdown and a growing feeling amongst many Poles that they have not reaped the benefits of transformation.

Mr Andrzej Lepper will start an anti-European campaign without hesitation, should he feel that this will strengthen his political position for the next elections (local and regional elections are due in summer 2002). For now his anti-European rhetoric is toned down, but it could break out again any time. The second anti-European party (the League of Polish Families) in the parliament is much more directly outspoken against a united Europe but also much less powerful and less of importance.

In spite of these dangers, the general picture is good. The new government is doing a remarkable job of getting Poland into the right position and although the time is short, and the issues to be dealt with are many, Poland will make it just in time.

Professor Witold Sartoriusis President of the Foundation for Economic Education and Advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister of Poland.

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