Rewarding Turkey

Rewarding Turkey

Turkey’s famously messy political system
delivered a remarkable package of human rights reforms at the
beginning of this month, removing the most important obstacles to
eventual membership of the European Union. Add this to the
far-reaching series of structural reforms in banking, public
finance and state ownership enacted over the last couple of years
and you have nothing short of a revolution in the way the country’s
economy and society are being run.

The big question is whether these changes will
be enough to bring economic and political stability to a country
that is just beginning to recover from the effects of a deep
financial crisis. The answer depends in no small part on how the EU
chooses to respond.

Despite the recent good news, there are many
clouds on Turkey’s horizon. Economic management could still falter
in the run-up to early elections, which have been called for
November 3. These elections could well fail to deliver a clear
winner, throwing the country into further uncertainty. If Brazil is
eventually forced to restructure its debt, Turkey could be severely
affected by the resulting fallout in financial markets. And last
but not least, military conflict with Iraq would greatly complicate
the economic and political picture.

The quest for EU membership serves as Turkey’s
anchor in its drive to complete the transformation towards a fully
institutionalised, liberal democratic order based on a market
economy. Progress on that quest also serves as an all-important
signpost for financial markets and investors. The Turkish
parliament’s hurried action, after nearly a decade of
procrastination, cannot be understood solely in terms of political
expediency. All parties, including pro-Islamic ones and excepting
only the ultranationalist MHP, voted in favour of the legislation,
which included fundamental changes – from the repeal of the death
penalty to the legalisation of broadcasting and education in all
languages spoken in Turkey.

For the EU to belittle the nature and the
magnitude of the step taken by the Turkish parliament on the eve of
general elections and to equivocate on its response or present
Turkey with yet another hurdle, such as a resolution in Cyprus,
would not just be wrong. Such a response would also be politically,
strategically and ethically self-defeating.

Politically, Turkey’s historical choices of the
past two centuries, namely modernisation along western secular
lines in a predominantly Muslim society, have arguably acquired
added significance in the aftermath of September 11. For the EU to
adopt the line of the European Christian democratic parties, which
declared in 1996 that the EU did not have room for a Muslim
country, would send all the wrong signals.

Strategically, Turkey willingly became a
security partner of the west during and after the cold war. Given
the volatility of the Middle East and a possible war against Iraq,
Turkey’s credentials as a reliable ally would become even more
precious. The claim that the EU’s borders should not start at Iraq
ignores the fact that having borders with an unstable Middle
Easternised Turkey provides infinitely more reasons for
concern.

The coming election in Turkey are one of the
most important in the country’s history. Almost all polls indicate
that the pro-Islamic AKP led by Tayyip Erdoga has a comfortable
lead. Concerns have been voiced both about Mr Erdoan’s ideology and
the military’s response to yet another possible experiment with an
Islamist-led government.

The west should worry more about the AKP’s lack
of experience, expertise and sophisticated cadres. The party would
not be against the EU, but because it would ride a wave of
resentment against International Monetary Fund-supported policies,
it might back away from the economic programme without pursuing a
coherent alternative.

In any case, it is too early to declare Mr
Erdoan the winner of the elections. In Kemal Dervis, economy
minister until his recent resignation, Turkey has a first-rate
economic manager and a budding political actor. Should his efforts
to unite the fragmented centre-left succeed, Turkey might enter the
new year with a competent, fresh government committed to
modernisation and to Turkey’s European vocation.

The EU must become a constructive force in that
process. If it prevaricates and fails to show the courage of its
more cosmopolitan convictions, it will have missed a golden
opportunity to shape the multicultural Europe of the future. It
might also contribute to instability in Turkey. The ball is now in
EU’s court. Although much remains to be done on Ankara’s part,
failure to offer a date for starting accession negotiations will
prove far more costly than embarking on the process of
integration.

Soli Özel teaches at the department of
international relations in Istanbul Bilgi University and is
currently a visiting fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford.

Dani Rodrik is professor of international
political economy at Harvard University

To read more about Turkey, please visit

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