One month to EU elections: An ‘educated guess’ who the next MEPs could be

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In many countries, it is already possible to guess, with a good degree of certainty, who the next MEPs could be. All political forces have published their lists, and opinion polls give a snapshot into the balance of power in each country. What is more challenging, is to imagine future coalitions.

A group of bloggers have published simultaneously forecasts about who the next MEPs from their countries will be. Georgi Gotev for Bulgaria, Dan Alexe for Romania and Angele Kedatiene for Lithuania have made their “educated guesses,” in naming all the MEPs they expected to be elected on 26 May, while Emanuele Bonini for Italy has named those seen as certain to be elected.

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In the case of Bulgaria, the forecast for the 17 MEPs is as follows, with the names of the new MEPs in bold:

Mariya Gabriel (GERB). She may leave if nominated for Commissioner.

Angrey Kovachev (GERB)

Andrey Novakov (GERB)

Eva Maydell (GERB)

Asim Ademov (GERB)

Aleksandar Yordanov (SDS, on the GERB list)

Liliana Pavlova (GERB) She may become an MEP if Mariya Gabriel leaves for the Commission.

Elena Yoncheva (BSP)

Sergei Stanishev (BSP)

Ivo Hristov (BSP)

Petar Vitanov (BSP)

Velizar Enchev (BSP)

Denitsa Slateva (BSP)

Delyan Peevski (DPS)

Ilhan Kyuchyuk (DPS)

Iska Mihaylova (DPS)

Radan Kanev (Democratic Bulgaria)

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In the case of Romania, Dan Alexe makes the following prediction for the 32 Romanian MEPs:

PNL, opposition (EPP):

Rareş Bogdan, journalist Realitatea TV

Mircea Hava, mayor of Alba Iulia

Siegfried Mureşan, currently MEP

Daniel Buda, currently MEP

Adina Vălean, currently MEP

Vasile Blaga, former PNL vice-president

Dan Motreanu, former PNL secretary general

Gheorghe Falcă, mayor of Arad

Cristian Buşoi, currently MEP

Eight MEPs would come from the governing Socialists (PSD, S&D):

Rovana Plumb(MEP)

Carmen Avram(journalist, TV anchor)

Claudiu Manda(husband of the PSD passionaria Olguta Vasilescu)

Cristian Terhes(a defrocked Greek Catholic priest)

Dan Nica(MEP)

Maria Grapini(MEP)

Tudor Ciuhodaru

Dragos Benea

The opposition Alliance 2020 USR/PLUS could gain 6 seats:

Dacian Cioloș LUS president)

Cristian Ghinea(USR)

Dragoș Pîslaru (PLUS)

Clotilde Armand(USR)

Dragoş Tudorache (PLUS)

Nicolae Ștefănuță (USR)

Calin Popescu Tariceanu’s ALDE is credited with three to four seats:

Norica Nicolai, MEP

Daniel Barbu, former Culture Minister, former chief of the Permanent Electoral Authority

Renate Weber, MEP

(Ovidiu Silaghi ?)

Victor Ponta’s Pro Romania would also get three to four seats:

Victor Ponta, former PSD president, former prime minister

Corina Cretu, current EU Commissioner

Mihai Tudose, former prime minister

Iurie Leanca, former prime minister of the neighbouring, Romanian speaking, Republic of Moldova

From PMP, the party of the former president Traian Basescu:

Traian Basescu

(followed by Eugen Tomac)

From the Hungarian ethnic formation UDMR:

Iuliu Winkler, MEP

(followed by Lorant Vincze)

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Angele Kedatiene publishes the following likely list of the 11 Lithuanian MEPs, with the names of the new MEPs in bold:

Union of Greens and Peasantries:

Bronis Rope

Raimondas Šarūnas Marciulionis

Linas Kontrimas

Laima Mogeniene

Homeland Union:

Liudas Mažylis

Andrius Kubilius

Radvilė Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė

Rasa Juknevičienė

Lithuanian social democrats:

Vilija Blinkeviciute

Labour party:

Viktoras Uspaskich

Order and Justice:

Remigijus Zemaitaitis

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In the case of Italy, who will have 73 MEPs, Emanuele Bonini writes that Matteo Salvini’s La Lega will be the biggest winner of the elections. He cites Salvini’s best candidates as: Angelo Ciocca, Oscar Danilo Lancini, Mara Bizzotto, Angelo Attaguile, Paolo Borchia, Matteo Adinolfi, Jacopo Alberti, Francesca Donato, Ilaria Antelmi, Daniela Calderano, Anna Bonfrisco, Marco Campomenosi, Susanna Ceccardi.

The list of Five Stars Movement (M5S) has only female heads of lists in the Italian constituencies: Daniela Rondinelli, Chiara Maria Gemma, Alessandra Todde, Maria Angela Danzì, Sabrina Pignedoli. Other “strong” names are outgoing MEPs Fabio Massimo Castaldo, Eleonora Evi, Ignazio Corrao and Laura Ferrara.

The Italian Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, or PD), is expected to have 16 MEPs, including Giuliano Pisapia (already mayor of Milan), Carlo Calenda (already minister for Competiveness and Permanent Representative to the EU), Simona Bonafé, Franco Roberti and Caterina Chinnici. Candidates with good chaces of success are Patrizia Toia, Brando Benifei, Mercedes Bresso, Paolo De Castro, David Sassoli and Roberto Gualtieri.

The Italian member of the European People’s Party (EPP), Forza Italia, is expected to experience one of its worst electoral performances ever. According to the latest projections from the European Parliament, Silvio Berlusconi’s party will be able to elect 9 candidates. One of them will be Berlusconi himself, who is head of the list in four out the five constituencies.

Antonio Tajani is also very likely to be back in Brussels. The outgoing president of the European parliament is head of the list in the constituency where he traditionally always succeeds.

Lara Comi, Sandra Savino, Alessandra Mussolini, Barbara Matera e Gabriella Giammanco are also in pole-position, being the second candidates in the party lists. Lara Comi and Barbara Matera run for a third mandate in a row, while Mussolini, the granddaughter of Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, is in search of  re-election.

Post-fascist party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia, or FdI) want to see leader Giorgia Meloni elected. The far-right political force is expected to get a total of four seats. A prominent name for this party is Raffaele Fitto, already serving as MEP within the EPP group (first as Forza Italia member, then as president of his own party). But Meloni is campaigning on a fascist agenda, by putting forward Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini, the great grandson of Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. Since fascists in Italy are still there, the European Parliament risks having two Duce’s relatives in the Parliament.

What is more difficult is to predict what political groups could be formed, as it should not be taken for granted that the future groups will mirror present ones. The real results of the European election will be learned much later after the election week, possibly following the summer holidays.

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